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Topic: Silver breaking out. (Read 1044 times) previous topic - next topic

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Silver breaking out.
There are several signs that silver is finally breaking it's 2 year consolidation of the 2016 rally off of the lows. This could  the beginning of one of the most important moves in silver this decade .
The first sign is gold. Gold has broken and retested 2 major downtrend lines and is now only 40$ away from a 5 year high. Oil is now at a 3 1/2 year high. Silver often lags gold as the big money in the know, goes for gold first.

This leads to the gold/silver ratio. The GSR just just came off of the trendline marking the 3rd highest point in the last 30 years and the fifth highest in all of history.  It should be expected that it will return to the mean, if not over-shoot it to the downside,  It is just staring to breakdown on the daily now.


The next sign is the silver stocks are leading the metal. For example EXK is making a golden cross on the 1d which has been a pretty good indicator for this stock. It is very possible for EXK to stall a little as silver breaks out, then pull back below this level as silver retests it's BO. Others are just staring to break out.

Next is the lack of interest in silver. Investment demand was down last year, and the COT report shows large specs are short as written in this article. They are so often wrong it is one of the better signals.
clivemaund.com COT article
Of course the price is what really matters.
The break of the 200DMA with conviction is very important. There are many ways to draw the trendlines on the 1D chart i only put 2 on this to try to keep it clean, but no matter how you chose to draw them, they are being broken with the last only a few cents away.


Huge Cup and Handle

I am adding a link to my master silver chart.
Long Term Weekly Silver interactive chart.

  • Last Edit: April 19, 2018, 11:15:20 AM by edthelorax
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #1
hope you are wrong for my sake Ed! Im about 20% short invested with a position in Ashanti ( special situation and illiquid )...I still believe a breakdown is imminent in gold and miners ( silver I can't really comment )...I actually own both gold ( at 900 CAD / now 1600 CAD ) and silver at 22 USD ( unfortunately )

  • sn00p
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #2
Ed I believe in the process and work you have put in. You have seen my 'master charts' and hope you wont mind if I drop a few in here to support your ideas:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUXAG/Jd8m2Irp-XAUXAG-macro-micro-harmonics-to-60-in-favor-of-silver/

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/38FlkHUj-XAUUSD-Saturn-goes-Direct/

  • CLARKBAR
  • [*][*][*]
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #3
Snoop.. the band-wagon is nipping at your heels~!  http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt042018.html  

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #4
Ugh, i guess we have to wait, again. It is back to hope that this line and the 50/100 DMA's hold.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #5
Silver has held up well as it hot the LT downtrend lines. Breaking these should send a clear signal to all who have been watching and waiting.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #6
and down they go...so predictable.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #7
and down they go...so predictable.
And right before the open.

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #8
I think I'm going to just stay on my roof, bury my head in the sand (work)
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #9
I didn't want it do breakout to the downside. What a crappy summer for silver.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #10
That's about enough of this down crap.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #11
That's about enough of this down crap.



One could also say breaking down as well as breaking out. Have a look at Gold; it is flirting with a triple bottom, well past the death cross and MACD is not supportive for a turn up. If the triple bottom support breaks, I believe the next horizontal support is about $25 lower.




Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #12
That's about enough of this down crap.



One could also say breaking down as well as breaking out. Have a look at Gold; it is flirting with a triple bottom, well past the death cross and MACD is not supportive for a turn up. If the triple bottom support breaks, I believe the next horizontal support is about $25 lower.




Something the board may find of interest and to watch for. If gold should break up and that's a big IF, it looks to me that the uptrend would be far more shaky than if an uptrend started with clear and clean MACD lines. An uptrend still could occur and has done so before. Not often though. Good luck with it.


  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #13
This has to be the bottom in gold or 1203 approx. is the next stop. Silver chart below

Re: Silver breaking out.
Reply #14
This has to be the bottom in gold or 1203 approx. is the next stop. Silver chart below

Here is another look at the silver chart presented by Chartist but on a semi-log plot and going back a little further:



If one were to honor the earlier data for the trend line silver would be little further below. The next chart focuses on the latter portion of the same curve:




Bull orientation for the 50, 100,and 200 day MA's would be ordered like a traffic light, but they are reversed. The 50 day is below the trending support line and 100 day is not far from crossing it as well. Since the dollar or more drop has taken about 5 weeks, this does not have the feel of a manipulation raiding stops, rather it may be the capitulation we have been awaiting. Timing is good for a capitulation move as the next few months are typically positive for PM's.


I am not posting the charts for space consideration, but nearly all individual PM stock curves have trend line curves that are pinching suggesting some sort of resolution to the mundane market we have experienced the last several months. All this to say I think we may be getting close to the long awaited secular PM bull market.