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Topic: Crypto and it's effect on silver (Read 1373 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #15
According to CPM group silver investment demand for 2017 was 108MM oz. at 17$ that is just shy of 2BB.
The headline of this article states "Gold and silver investment flat in 2018"
http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-12-18/Gold-silver-investment-demand-flat-in-2018-CPM-Group.html
They go on to say that expected demand for 2018 is 128MM oz. that sounds like a 25% increase. Not exactly flat.
Today Bitcoin's market cap is just shy of 200BB in other words, if 1% of BTC were to move into silver, it would double the investment demand (in usd)
One of the things about the BTC crowd is they understand fiat, they do their research, they are much more likely to be anti-establishment especially the banking industry. 
We have seen in bitcoin that when the inflows of money into an asset with an inelastic supply get the price moving, it does not take as much inflows to raise the market cap as the market cap increases.
Silver, like bitcoin has a backwards demand curve, as prices go higher, demand actually increases.  This becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, leading to higher demand, which leads to higher prices which continues until the said asset is extremely Over-valued.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • sn00p
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #16
honestly I think this post will be archived someday as part of the 'i hope no one writes a book about this' post series lmao

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #17
Panicky Bitcoin investors struggle to withdraw cash from money exchanges as they look to 'safe' gold investments amid fears of cryptocurrency collapse....
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5396239/bitcoin-price-investors-selling-gold-value-collapse/

Good call Ed!

  • Nikko
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #18
Ed, can you go back further and see if it happened more often than once

Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #19
This out of thin air wealth has only become enough to matter within the last 6 months, before that, the ratio of BTC market cap to silver market was not there.  Now is as good of a time as any to mention crypto is likely to have a retrace similar to that of silver after 2011.  it's about 1/2 way there to have a similar move. if it behaves like silver, and it seems very similar to me, it will be about a year and a half before btc has a chance to break 20k, if it can.
i feel that it will take that long to sort out which crypto is viable tech for the future. 
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • Nikko
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #20
Ed, I meant the 50/100/200 ska converging on silver...if you can run silver back further it would be helpful to see if it happened twice and not openly once before

Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #21
I went back on stockcharts.com to the early 70's they don't have all the MA data, but it looks like it may have done something similar in 1972. It almost did it in 1997, but the Buffet buy spike prevented it. before that it was pegged to the USD.
so basically the 3rd time in history and we know how the other 2 turned out.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • tonys
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #22
Wow - interesting - wasn't expecting a crypto discussion here ...

Crypto took a hit in January - Bitcoin basically dropped from $19K-$20K down to about $10K and is around $11K now.

This does not impact most of the crypto holders - they've seen drops of 70% to 90% followed by massive recoveries.
In fact, most of the major holders of crypto are used to it.  The new people entering the market (around $19K-$20K) are likely freaking out, but if they KNOW anyone who has held crypto for the long time - they will obtain advise that it pays to hold on - even after losses of 90%.

Some people will view these pullbacks as buying opportunities.

I have some crypto.

I also have some silver miners.

Crypto could be a bubble.  It could also increase by 50x before it pops (if it pops).

The CME/COBE recently (about a month ago) started trading futures on Bitcoin - cash settlement only - so this is a pure derivative contract.

A lot of people who know crypto - know precious metals - and know how corrupt and manipulated those futures contracts are.  They're not expecting help from the CFTC or any gov. agency.

Oddly enough - it's more difficult to short Bitcoin due to the fact that actual cryptos are traded on multiple exchanges and that crypto people are encouraged to take their Bitcoins OFF the exchange onto their own private wallets.

If/When crypto goes up significantly - I'll take some profits - and buy more silver miners - because they are incredibly cheap, and to diversify.  And I'll thank the metals manipulators for letting me get in cheap.

Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #23
Ed, I meant the 50/100/200 ska converging on silver...if you can run silver back further it would be helpful to see if it happened twice and not openly once before
So i did it, i was charting "silver" got the limited data. here is XAGUSD.
Something similar with the MA's happened 2 times ever, the first time the shorter MA"s came from above and it went down, the 2nd time they came from below, like now. That 2nd time silver not only rose, but spike doubled to reach the previous high.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • Nikko
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #24
thanks Ed...I think we are going to break a lot higher. Flanagan at Gan Global is saying if we break, its time to go all in...although he says the rise will likely not be triple digits as we needed the blowoff bottom for that.
I bought a basket of 5 miners just now ( AG, PAAS, SSRM, ABX, GDX ) am playing a 4% stop on this trading position. GL

  • Nikko
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #25
I bailed at 1.5% stop/loss. Chickened out on the trade.

Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #26
I bailed at 1.5% stop/loss. Chickened out on the trade.

Seems around 2:00 eastern time, someone must have talked a strong dollar as it went up about 0.60 on dxy and sparked a commensurate drop in PMs. I covered my $20 JNUG calls expiring tomorrow this morning putting in an order for next week expiration. Just a little too early on that trade I have to admit.

  • Nikko
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Re: Crypto and it's effect on silver
Reply #27
I lost 750 bucks on my trade...would have been a lot worse if I hadn't been stopped out. Trump talk on the dollar is what drove it.
Miners have NOT been a good investment with the gold rally thats for sure. Ill stick with my plan of 60% gold, 20% silver and 20% miners for now...If I do see a tide turning towards miners I wold sell some gold and buy more miners but I am nowhere near that point.