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Topic: Beware of the Stock market!! (Read 1703 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #45
With each passing day there seems to be more reason to believe the worm has turned down for the market and our economy. PM's and PM stocks generally are faring much better. It is good for the posters on this forum as we seem to be biased toward the PM sector. With the minor bump down last week all my puts were exercised; I will hold the positions unencumbered until the new year commences as the partial shut down might be a catalyst shattering confidence in the fed and government.

Merry Christmas to everyone and Happy New Year. I am visiting kids and grand kids for the holiday and will be back to post more in a few days. Good luck to all.

  • ken
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #46
"It is good for the posters on this forum as we seem to be biased toward the PM sector."

Sometimes too much. I believe we are entering the beginning of the end and that is good for the metals.
What else you going to invest in? Bitcoin?
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #47
One of these 3 red horizontal rays should mark the end of the bounce. If one thought the market was going to continue lower,  they could short or buy puts at each level.
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #48
Break the green zone, target red then orange.
  • Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 05:13:08 PM by edthelorax
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #49
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #50
It didn't break the green yet. It should be a short here with a stop just above the top green.
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #51
It didn't break the green yet. It should be a short here with a stop just above the top green.


I think your analysis is spot on with one caveat being the unpredictable timing and influence by the FED. If the market does another drop like it did before Christmas, the Fed could instigate rate cuts and QE to reflate the averages, but the remedy would only mask a drop in purchasing power as the dollar would drop so the wealth represented by stocks would fall. This is a reflection of measuring with a flawed or as I posted many times, an elastic measuring tool. Over time the dollar will reflect the destructive ZIRP and QE, possibly to the point that market averages do not drop but the value of the averages is destroyed. The described Fed action is a near certainty to occur, whether the averages actually go up is not. Either way this situation is very PM positive.

I bought back the GOLD position that was called away over the weekend for the previous strike price. The potential for serious upside far outweighs any significant downside risk in my opinion. I am holding no short options and long a few LEAP calls on Barrick Gold. I think there will be serious underlying upside over the next 11 and 23 months.

Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #52
The SM has shown considerable strength rebounding from the last fall. The SPX is hitting a line that has been on this chart for a long time. A break above this could lead to new highs. I expect at least a retrace of the rebound from here, if not a lower low.


I don't  know if the DJIA can make it up to the orange target without retesting the 50/200DMA's as the try to make a golden cross
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #53
Looking at a long term chart of sp500 priced in gold shows sp500 at support defined by a trend line and the 100 week MA. It could be that gold finally gets a bump such that the ratio violates the support. BB band width is pinched suggesting an outsized move. Lower chart is blowup of upper chart tail.






Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #54
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #55
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #56
Here is a very telling chart adding veracity to Ed's beware of the stock market chart above:



I hope it comes through. The point is way more funds have been spent on stock buy backs than investments. Investments are good for future earnings and company growth if prudently spent, Share buy backs contribute exactly nothing to the bottom line or future growth. In fact the growth in earnings for the SnP500 that we always see is on a per share basis; I wonder what the % change is when looking at the total earnings not on a per share basis. Since share count is going down it has to be less than the number we are led to believe. The sell in May slogan may have a lot of amplitude behind it this year and the bull season this fall might not have much umph.

In case the chart does not come through or if the reader cares to read the entire post, here is the link.


http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_050719.html

Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #57
The instructions for this chart work on the downside too. I think the bottom of the green box is a good target with this break of the 200DMA.
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #58
Double top? It needs to break the low between the 2 highs for confirmation of the pattern technically.
These gaps aren't really strong, so they don't "need" to be filled but are good downside targets for this ST chart.
The 200DMA is 2777, if that breaks then one of the 2 blue fib retracements is likely.
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Re: Beware of the Stock market!!
Reply #59
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