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Topic: Gold 2018 (Read 1689 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Gold 2018
Reply #150
I am not changing my long position in PM's with the posting of these three gold  charts that are not particularly positive nor supportive of what we discussed on this forum as a capitulation low. Frankly, a couple weeks ago I thought we would see a higher amplitude bounce to start a secular rally that is looking more like a cyclical bounce. As a side note, silver has not shown any serious deviation from its decline.
The chart of 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages is fully bear oriented as the chart formatting would have traffic light orientation for bull alignment.



Bollinger Band spread is narrowing with the bands generally declining and price is tracing the midpoint, not an indication of anything but steady as she goes at best for near term. The chart paint is looking a lot like the paint commencing mid May where an apparent orchestrated take down ran stops with subsequent bottom fishing. The drop commencing 13 August looks a lot like capitulation, but it could also be an orchestrated raid gunning stops that had better results because it is located at the round number $1200. All this occurring when PM seasonal buying should be supporting price; not good.



The last chart shows MACD rolling over with the histogram still positive but shrinking in spread. The curves never ascended above the midline. RSI has turned down after touching the midline. Parabolic Switch and Reverse has turned negative for the past five trading days. These three indicators are bearish.



It is shaping up to be a pivotal week. PM's need to do well if the capitulation thesis is correct, otherwise the bounce late last month is a dead cat version. I also saw a $13.50 silver forecast recently that is not refuted by anything posted here.
Have a good trading week!

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #151
I have recently been conflicted (see post immediately above) in my opinion of the capitulation low of mid August since there was no definitive follow through with gold, and silver did not confirm with a break out. However, looking at the gold silver ratio, one can expect that gold priced in silver is about to decline. Notice on the chart that the BB spread equals 20 year minimums and the current paint is outside the upper band, normally a strong indicator for a down move. Second, notice the ratio seems to always stall around 85 which is essentially where we are now. To satisfy the chart forecast, gold could fall, silver could rise,  combination of the above, both gold and silver could fall with gold falling more rapidly, and lastly, the one that seems more plausible to me, both gold and silver could rise with silver rising faster. My thought earlier this year was that PM's would bounce commencing with either a fundamental push or the seasonal push; so far no bounce. Maybe soon, but this morning gold is down $4 and silver flat.



  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #152
What were waiting for is the right event that will drive the price up. Everything right now is in stasis.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #153
I still believe we are at or close to bottom, and will have huge gains non stop very shortly.
I am quite long ABX at 9.95 avg and have been buying HGU.to ( double Canadian Miner index )...My cost there is presently 7.25
Im down on both but never expected to pick a bottom so am comfortable. Adding a little at a time on dips.


  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #154
we have liftoff!

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #155
we have liftoff!


I hope we get a full first stage burn and successfull successful separation in preparation for second stage burn into orbit!


A worthless post but fun to type

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #156
Sandy, volume is key today for this to be a reversal. I said it once and probably a million times. 145 HUI had to be broken for there to be a flush...I believe I mentioned this many months ago...I just wish I stuck with my original shorts!
I am very long ABX and HGU.to

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #157
Sandy, volume is key today for this to be a reversal. I said it once and probably a million times. 145 HUI had to be broken for there to be a flush...I believe I mentioned this many months ago...I just wish I stuck with my original shorts!
I am very long ABX and HGU.to


Agree, volume always provides veracity to the statements made by market moves and I remember your strong washout convictions over the past months punctuated with several successful short trades. I did not disagree, but had misgivings about my ability to hold out for bottoms even if I were able to pick them. Rather, I took the position that over medium to long term the bias was clearly up and while not getting best price for product, there was still room for massive profits. Over time, we will both be able to visit the sandy beach to celebrate consuming a few adult beverages. I am wating for more confirmation before celebrating.

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #158

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #159
We keep looking for a big mve up in PM's but it never seems to materialize. This morning PM's are down 1.4% to 2% on no news; smells very bad to me. PM shares via GDX and GDXJ proxy are down about 1.5% in premarket trading. I do not think the down move will hold. A quick rebound would suggest market manipulation attempt was foiled by investors buying the dips.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #160
Tick Tock Tick Tock .............................................
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #161
I am not changing my long position in PM's with the posting of these three gold  charts that are not particularly positive nor supportive of what we discussed on this forum as a capitulation low. Frankly, a couple weeks ago I thought we would see a higher amplitude bounce to start a secular rally that is looking more like a cyclical bounce. As a side note, silver has not shown any serious deviation from its decline.
The chart of 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages is fully bear oriented as the chart formatting would have traffic light orientation for bull alignment.



Bollinger Band spread is narrowing with the bands generally declining and price is tracing the midpoint, not an indication of anything but steady as she goes at best for near term. The chart paint is looking a lot like the paint commencing mid May where an apparent orchestrated take down ran stops with subsequent bottom fishing. The drop commencing 13 August looks a lot like capitulation, but it could also be an orchestrated raid gunning stops that had better results because it is located at the round number $1200. All this occurring when PM seasonal buying should be supporting price; not good.



The last chart shows MACD rolling over with the histogram still positive but shrinking in spread. The curves never ascended above the midline. RSI has turned down after touching the midline. Parabolic Switch and Reverse has turned negative for the past five trading days. These three indicators are bearish.



It is shaping up to be a pivotal week. PM's need to do well if the capitulation thesis is correct, otherwise the bounce late last month is a dead cat version. I also saw a $13.50 silver forecast recently that is not refuted by anything posted here.
Have a good trading week!


This seems like a long post, but really not as the bulk is a repeat of gold charts posted a month ago for comparison. At the time I was expecting a higher amplitude bounce if the capitulation thesis was correct the chart paint we had at the time. It is a month later and we have had base building but no bounce. The vertical line is the end point of the previous charts. Note the $1206 horizontal resistance has been challenged several times to no avail. BB's remain pinched and RSI along with MACD are moderately bullish. It seems gold investors are preparing for commencement of the major secular bull move we have long awaited as over the last month, indicators are not turning south.




  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #162
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #163
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #164
It would not surprise me to see a hundred dollar move in gold by year end. Note, there is nothing behind the curve fit other than forcing it to fit and looking at the extension.