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Topic: Gold 2018 (Read 1670 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #135
I figured I would throw this work on here as well. Looking like a $100. up, down or not at all. This should be interesting.

Going to the downside would give us a decent slingshot event. Most profitable!

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #136
Quote is from article on capitulation with some good charts. "Gold bullion has entered Capitulation mode, when there is an urgency on the part of investors to liquidate an investment.  Such Capitulations in gold over the last forty years generally produced interim lows, not final bottoms.  The 20-day ema around $1249 and 50-day ema around $1270 become important resistances."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye072518.pdf

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #137
Look at this chart from Zerohedge....
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-27/yuan-plunging-fresh-13-month-lows

Rides with gold.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #138
Monthly chart for gold...

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #139
We may have a bounce here...

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #140
We may have a bounce here...


You may be on to a major intermediate if not longer turn, Ken. Note that the share price is deviating horizontally from following the declining lower BB trace albeit still in the lower half of the band range. RSI is rising off over sold values established at the beginning of this short base building period. MACD histogram has turned positive and the curves are at very low values suggesting room to run. Not shown, but COT numbers are gold positive and we are entering a seasonally positive time. I closed some covered calls (mostly expiring in Sept) this afternoon locking in 70% to 95% of the potential gains thinking we might get a move up and calls can be resold at a higher strike. I am starting to get better vibes wrt PM holdings even though more time is needed to confirm a reversal.




  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #141
Damned strange times my friend. Watching this, reading those who think they can decipherer the gold/silver chart has been exhausting. I quit reading. It's meaningless at this point. It is a crap shoot however as to which direction this will go. If gold/silver is going to crash let it be spectacular. At least we will have a springboard to operate from.

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #142
Damned strange times my friend. Watching this, reading those who think they can decipherer the gold/silver chart has been exhausting. I quit reading. It's meaningless at this point. It is a crap shoot however as to which direction this will go. If gold/silver is going to crash let it be spectacular. At least we will have a springboard to operate from.


There is no question PM market has been a crap shoot and the house has been winning as usual, but I think the odds for gold and PM's in general going up are in the investors favor. The link is to an article that points out major gold producers are making less margin on higher priced gold. That is not sustainable and soon either gold price goes up or mines are put on care and maintenance suppressing supply and gold price goes up, just takes longer.

https://srsroccoreport.com/top-gold-miners-production-declined-15-while-costs-escalate/

At 321Gold there is an article by Stewart Thompson addressing Chindia demand and a host of charts that are PM positive plus more stock market information. It is worth the time to breeze through it.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_073118.html

Like I said earlier, I am getting a few more PM positive vibes.




  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #143
Damned strange times my friend. Watching this, reading those who think they can decipherer the gold/silver chart has been exhausting. I quit reading. It's meaningless at this point. It is a crap shoot however as to which direction this will go. If gold/silver is going to crash let it be spectacular. At least we will have a springboard to operate from.


There is no question PM market has been a crap shoot and the house has been winning as usual, but I think the odds for gold and PM's in general going up are in the investors favor. The link is to an article that points out major gold producers are making less margin on higher priced gold. That is not sustainable and soon either gold price goes up or mines are put on care and maintenance suppressing supply and gold price goes up, just takes longer.

https://srsroccoreport.com/top-gold-miners-production-declined-15-while-costs-escalate/

At 321Gold there is an article by Stewart Thompson addressing Chindia demand and a host of charts that are PM positive plus more stock market information. It is worth the time to breeze through it.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_073118.html

Like I said earlier, I am getting a few more PM positive vibes.




Why would the gold miners even want to produce anything at basement low prices? I know that everyone wants a paycheck but at these prices I would think about layoffs.

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #144
It looks like all the chit chat about imposing tariffs is taking its toll on everything but the dollar and bonds. So how much gold damage can we expect? If things do not turn at this level, quite a bit. Notice a death cross will occur this week as there is enough momentum in the charts to assure that event and price has penetrated the up trending support line. Horizontal supports shown are at current levels, and two roughly $25 increments lower. RSI is nearing over sold.




Gold is now at the lowest of the horizontal support lines, if this level does not hold the next support is a lot lower. There was some discussion about gold maybe turning up, but in my post I stated it was to early to call. I get lucky once in a while even if the call works against my portfolio. I am still of the opinion that the secular turn up is not far off and the near term ups and down will be looked at as noise when that happens.


The updated chart below does not look very good for gold.



  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #145
The great unknown. With Trump in charge we may see a big dive in the metals. Remember, this is about confidence! !

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #146
Here is an interesting brief history and view on gold's changing role, or maybe more accurately how gold is viewed in current times:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #147
Here is an interesting brief history and view on gold's changing role, or maybe more accurately how gold is viewed in current times:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/

Yep, read that yesterday. I agree. But he also writes that either 2019 or 2020 will be the years for gold. The biggie here as with Armstrong, is that HYPER-inflation doesn't start until the people lose confidence. Watch Turkey to see how this works.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Gold 2018
Reply #148
I see a bull running..................

Re: Gold 2018
Reply #149
I see a bull running..................


By Bull, you must mean gold out performing silver as gold is in the numerator. Chart below shows it could be an inverse head and shoulders formation or a double top. I do not know, but I am quite sure both will do well. I really like inverse head and shoulders formations as there is no wayto paint one without an equally credible double top.