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Topic: seems oversold (Read 359 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • curkli 
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seems oversold
Last night I was comparing this to paas another somewhat pure silver play.  Anyway this took a big hit, I think it's from that hit job on Seeking Alpha.  I bet that guy has made a killing if he really shorted this like he said.  All miners look oversold to me right now, especially this one, I don't think that the metals have corrected nearly enough to justify this pullback.  The metal prices for the third quarter were stronger than the second quarter.  Unless Gold goes back to 1250 or less and silver under 18, I think your going to see some short covering going into earnings.

  • curkli 
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Re: seems oversold
Reply #1
BTW, I love the charts on the pages, very nice website, Like I said in my intro I hope it takes off, this would be a much nicer environment than yahoo with all the spam and trolls.  Kudos to those who started this.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: seems oversold
Reply #2
I feel it is very important to look at the 2001-2011 time frame in order to really get a feel for what "oversold" means when it comes to  silver stocks.
  In 2002 HL went from a high of $5.75 to a low of $2.20. SSRI same year $7.75 to $3.20, PAAS $8.75 to $4.00. Each losing over %50. All because silver went from $5.25 to $4.50. (-22%)
In 2004-5 HL went from $8+ to $3.50; SSRI $17.50 to $8, CDE $7.50 to $3. On a %30 dip in silver.
I won't even bring up 2008.
Manipulation at it's finest.
Much of what I have written here over the last month has been based on my knowing that silver is manipulated. The way they did it in the 2000's is the same way they will do it for this wave (major Elliot wave 3.)
Major trendlines will be broken. Margin calls will make bottoms. The selling will feed on itself.
I see a lot of gaps in the charts of the silver miners, many if not most or all will most likely be filled.
Ed
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • curkli 
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Re: seems oversold
Reply #3
Yea I hear what your saying, I'm probably not as much of a "chartist" as you are Ed but there are obviously gaps.  I just don't see much more downside here though if the metals hold up the way they are.  Time will tell I guess.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: seems oversold
Reply #4
On the 3rd it was $10 now it's $8, the gap is "filled" I would like to see some real filling by trading here but that is not likely.
This is the target I have been waiting for. 
If you want to make some real money, buy First Majestic Oct. $9 strike CALLS bid $.20 ask $.25 Tomorrow morning!!
 By looking at the OI I think AG should close the month at about $10. Sell them in like 2 weeks the 20th.
I will be buying double the AG shares I sold, tomorrow morning. Even though there is a chance it will make a slightly lower low next month. This is close enough to the LT bottom for me.
Ed

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • curkli 
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Re: seems oversold
Reply #5
I'm getting 1100 shares of GDX put on me this weekend.  I'm going to scale out of some on monday and go into AG and SSRI.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: seems oversold
Reply #6
I'm getting 1100 shares of GDX put on me this weekend.  I'm going to scale out of some on monday and go into AG and SSRI.
That doesen't sound like any fun at all. That's what I was talking about in the currencies forum. You sold puts, got a few bucks (max potential gain) an now have to buy GDX at the put strike right?
Ed
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • curkli 
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Re: seems oversold
Reply #7
yea but it's not a problem, I'm happy with the shares and I will start selling calls against them to lower my cost average.  I just want transfer the position out of GDX into certain individual stocks that I think will outperform the general index but I will also hold some GDX.