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Topic: DXY (Read 6619 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken
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Re: DXY
Reply #105
A month perhaps for the death cross?

Re: DXY
Reply #106
A month perhaps for the death cross?

Hard to predict, early numbers rolling off the DXY 200 day are low around 90 so their influence will be pushing the 200day up. For the 50 day, numbers rolling off are from mid December, relatively high near 97, so they will be influencing the 50 day down. Going into January DXY was week, so those numbers coming off will influence the 50 day back up.


Re: DXY
Reply #107
A month perhaps for the death cross?

Hard to predict, early numbers rolling off the DXY 200 day are low around 90 so their influence will be pushing the 200day up. For the 50 day, numbers rolling off are from mid December, relatively high near 97, so they will be influencing the 50 day down. Going into January DXY was week, so those numbers coming off will influence the 50 day back up.



Seems the death cross is postponed. The fed turned the dollar around after the winter 2017/2018 winter drop with resolve to raise rates and ratchet their collective jaws about how the strong economy allowed them to have QT on autopilot. They kept singing that tune until last December when the market tanked; they did an abrupt about face indicating they are truly at the behest of their owners, who are heavily invested in the market after a few decades following Glass Steadman repeal. Congressional mandates are not even considered.

What I do not understand is why everything remains hunky dory, unless it is company management continuing to shrink their share count with profits and cheap borrowed funds at the expense of investing. Shrinking share count does nothing for future earnings, albeit for a while it does impact earnings per share, not because earnings are up, but because share count is down. Another major influence is the reduction in dollar denominated US debt held by China, Russia and other countries forcing the treasury department to sell more rolled over debt and increasing deficits to a shrinking client base. The only way that happens is rates rise or the fed buys he excess with printed fiat dollars, neither is sustainable beyond the short term. Once the make shift 'fixes' are exhausted the dollar will fall, question is timing. I am not aware of anything additional they can do to extend the charade longer, but then I had no idea they could push the day of reckoning this far.

So here is a DXY chart. The thing to keep in mind is everything used to form the graph is dynamic and falling in terms of real wealth. A rising dollar in this sense has very little meaning as it only means it's the least dirty shirt in the laundry.



The next chart is the dollar priced in gold. Notice the dollar did some better with the Fed's about face, but it does not look so shiny at the tail end with the BB midpoint (20 day MA) turning down and 50 day and 200 day MA's bear oriented. If you believe gold represents real wealth, the second graph should carry more weight.



Re: DXY
Reply #108
sorry, posted the same chart twice


Re: DXY
Reply #109
This might be a better representation of the dollar's value, dollar priced in gold times a 1000 as it does not have influence of the other 6 fiat currencies. Story line is the same dollar looks like it might be rolling over with the BB midpoint curve turning down and moving averages bear oriented.

Re: DXY
Reply #110
This might be a better representation of the dollar's value, dollar priced in gold times a 1000 as it does not have influence of the other 6 fiat currencies. Story line is the same dollar looks like it might be rolling over with the BB midpoint curve turning down and moving averages bear oriented.

I need another cup of coffee this morning, forgot the graph.


  • edthelorax
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Re: DXY
Reply #111
This trendline won't hold forever.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
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Re: DXY
Reply #112
The 200DMA is the next target. Below that, it's a long way down.
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  • ken
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Re: DXY
Reply #113
The 200DMA is the next target. Below that, it's a long way down.

Trump want's it down for trade purposes. We might just see this bad boy crash but when it does bottom it will slingshot up big time!
As I read, money is flowing into Asia due to the trade war and uncertainty.

  • ken
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Re: DXY
Reply #114
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/WtVLvd0W-DXY
My view.  Not close to a complete chart.
  • Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 04:35:22 PM by ken

  • edthelorax
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Re: DXY
Reply #115
Breakdown



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  • ken
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Re: DXY
Reply #116
Could get a decent rally for some months on this. Into the end of the year???

Re: DXY
Reply #117
Could get a decent rally for some months on this. Into the end of the year???

Remember that DXY is a very flawed index as it is using a half dozen other fiat currencies to measure a US dollar value Those other fiat currencies are losing value as is the dollar, but when comparing a bunch of declining value currencies against each other, one or more will look relatively although all are absolutely bad. A strong currency in the DXY basket is a perfect example of the least dirty shirt in the laundry. The dollar declining in that laundry is not a pretty picture.

Gold is an inert metal, its value has not really changed over millennia; brings to mind an ounce of gold has always bought a nice suit of clothes; not so much with any fiat money, and bear in mind one defining function of money is a store of value. A better way to measure dollar strength is using constant value gold. Since President Nixon removed gold backing of the dollar, its worth declined 1 - $35/$1400 or more than 97.5% of its 1971 value. That is an ugly shirt in the laundry!

  • edthelorax
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Re: DXY
Reply #118
The red line at 96 hit nicely,  it is now trapped between the 50 and 200DMA's.
Whichever way it breaks is likely going to be it's direction going forward. Lower, and it will have a death cross.
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  • edthelorax
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Re: DXY
Reply #119
The move was up, but now retesting the MA's.
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