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Topic: Gold 2021 (Read 1042 times) previous topic - next topic
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Gold 2021

In early trading Gold has been up sharply as has silver. Gold's 50 day MA will be shedding some elevated values as it takes on values at near the same value while the 200 day continues to move up, they will get closer but probably not cross. MACD is solid and as Ed noted, above the 50 day everyone will notice. Gold is above the 50 day MA, indicators are positive, volume seems to be making a moderate advance, and it has its normal seasonal tail wind of demand. Things look very positive in my opinion.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #1 –
...and silver?

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #2 –
This is special, at 0300 eastern time we have a congruent event; anyone know what caused the draw down?



Re: Gold 2021

Reply #3 –
Most like bitcoin

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #4 –
What next for gold short term as long term is up IMO? the chart looks like a bottom might nearly be in as price is close to the lower boundary of the 2 sigma channel drawn from lows of fall 2018, near but still above the 200 day MA, and nearing the lower BB trace. It is now apparent that since Thanksgiving, gold futures have painted a bear flag. While having been figuratively kicked in the groin last Friday wrt to my PM portfolio, I am optimistic as I did not see any news to spur the take down, therefore do not believe it will last. Second, we are in a strong PM season and have a very strong push from fiscal and monetary policy. I nibbled a little last Friday afternoon and wrote covered calls on core positions expiring the same day to scalp a little cash.


Re: Gold 2021

Reply #5 –
A little more information on the gold beat down last Friday:

"Da Boyz were at it again on Friday the 8th at 9.00am European time. Gold was $1,905 at the time and moved down $30 in one move.

According to our sources, a sell order for 1.4 million ounces (43 tonnes) went through Comex with a value of $2.7 billion.

This was most clearly one of the bullion banks acting with the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) in Basel.

No sane trader would ever dump 1.4 million oz of gold in one go in an illiquid market. If he did, he would be fired on the spot.

So this was clear manipulation. The big short position of the bullion banks clearly necessitated a lower gold price."

Taken from:

https://goldswitzerland.com/bidens-banana-republic/

Actually, its a pretty good article.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #6 –
Quote from: sandybeachdave on
A little more information on the gold beat down last Friday:

"Da Boyz were at it again on Friday the 8th at 9.00am European time. Gold was $1,905 at the time and moved down $30 in one move.

According to our sources, a sell order for 1.4 million ounces (43 tonnes) went through Comex with a value of $2.7 billion.

This was most clearly one of the bullion banks acting with the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) in Basel.

No sane trader would ever dump 1.4 million oz of gold in one go in an illiquid market. If he did, he would be fired on the spot.

So this was clear manipulation. The big short position of the bullion banks clearly necessitated a lower gold price."

Taken from:

https://goldswitzerland.com/bidens-banana-republic/

Actually, its a pretty good article.
It would be quite sane if you knew you could buy more back than you sold at lower cost ave and get away with it every time.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #7 –
"It would be quite sane if you knew you could buy more back than you sold at lower cost ave and get away with it every time." There is that and as stated in the article about the bullion banks holding a big short position, but I firmly believe the bullion banks are doing the work of the fed although I have no hard proof. If you had a big short position, it might make sense to short even more to drive the price down, but then you would have a greater short position to cover at some point. Second point is Hunt Brothers demise was being way too long on margin and the exchange changed the margin rules demanding more collateral and Hunts could not come up with it so the big margin call. It would be in reverse, but the exchange could again change the rules and stop this manipulation in its tracks, but they do not. Is it the trading commissions and margin fees? Maybe to a degree, but I believe there is an additional motivation to control prices by monetary officials and they are using the banks to control price appreciation. TF Metals report had an article predicting price appreciation for gold and silver. Basically the gold prediction is for 20% because it has been 20% roughly the last several years Why such a steady increase if not controlled? I do not know, but it does not pass the smell test for me.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #8 –
Quote from: sandybeachdave on
"It would be quite sane if you knew you could buy more back than you sold at lower cost ave and get away with it every time." There is that and as stated in the article about the bullion banks holding a big short position, but I firmly believe the bullion banks are doing the work of the fed although I have no hard proof. If you had a big short position, it might make sense to short even more to drive the price down, but then you would have a greater short position to cover at some point. Second point is Hunt Brothers demise was being way too long on margin and the exchange changed the margin rules demanding more collateral and Hunts could not come up with it so the big margin call. It would be in reverse, but the exchange could again change the rules and stop this manipulation in its tracks, but they do not. Is it the trading commissions and margin fees? Maybe to a degree, but I believe there is an additional motivation to control prices by monetary officials and they are using the banks to control price appreciation. TF Metals report had an article predicting price appreciation for gold and silver. Basically the gold prediction is for 20% because it has been 20% roughly the last several years Why such a steady increase if not controlled? I do not know, but it does not pass the smell test for me.
It's Occam's razor. The simplest explanation is most likely the correct one.  I think you have it nailed.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #10 –
This is my XAU chart. The same lines as months ago as can be seen on the gold 2020 thread.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #11 –
Gold will be painting a double bottom if current values hold. That would usher in the path to Ed's $660 target.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #12 –
So much for the double bottom noted in the above post, but then there is this special occasion where gold drops $18 in about 20 minutes with most of it before the ADP employment report at 0815. Chart increment is 5 minutes and time is noted in UTC so subtract 5 hours for EST.

 No one in their right mind would trade to maximize losses unless to manipulate for additional profits in a previously held short position or do the will of the fed and government propping up a failing fiat currency, maybe both. Sooner or later the music stops and the remaining chairs will be golden.

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #13 –
This gold situation is ugly. If current horizontal support does not hold next level is below $1600. On the bright side gold may be painting the right shoulder of a massive head and shoulders formation with the neckline above $1900. If that is true then we can expect to potentially wallow in this shoulder formation for a period of weeks. Another potential paint is a cup and handle. It is impossible to know the width of the handle, but it is probably longer than painting a shoulder. I do not know if either of these is correct or if another pattern will develop, just possibilities that need to be considered. The good news, once past either of these possibilities, it is Katy bar the door for an up move. If the lower support does not hold , well? Bars on the chart are monthly.

 

Re: Gold 2021

Reply #14 –
In the above post, I was quite concerned that gold was in an ugly situation and I still believe it may have more upside to go before the situation is violated. Painting the shoulder or handle is still in play, but also the MA's are ugly with 50 day dropping like a rock. On the bright side, MACD has turned bullish and a large bull flag looks like it could be in play and if the case, a breakout could be in the works shortly. For gold it is not all ugly technically and the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill just signed into law with more deficit spending like an infrastructure bill on the horizon, PM fundamentals have an additional stiff tail wind. The rest of March could be telling for the near term, long term is firmly up in my opinion.