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Topic: DOW slingshot (Read 509 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #15
Hi guys, I had to post here a final time.
IMO its unbelievable that the market is running again. Take this opportunity and sell if you still own anything besides gold.
I actually shorted GDXJ, GOLD and NEM today as even see miners taking one more bath. BUT, I have shorted APPL and a few of the Canadian banks again as well as TSLA.
Unbelievable that US had a 1 month head start on China and has now surpassed them in cases. The rate is doubling every few days.
Up to a few days ago people in Florida were partying there asses off. WTF is wrong with the people running the country to allow this?
Stay safe folks..keep your shoes outside after walks...dont walk your dogs as they can step in something and bring it in. Stay safe.
This virus makes a good case against globalism. International travel could one day destroy humanity. If the government was useful (implying intelligence here) they would have ceased all international flights.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #16
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • ken 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #17
I don't see that case panning our Ed. I think this ends in April as too the sell off.

Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #18
I don't see that case panning our Ed. I think this ends in April as too the sell off.
I'm in another camp. All the funny money printed is $6 plus trillion, roughly 150% of the annual federal budget and some 25% of annual GDP. What in the world are our representatives thinking? Well they are not. All this fiat money is going to be chasing fewer than normal goods and services as world wide, business is contracted to essential goods and services. Evidence abounds to support the narrative: ships are sailing the their load lines high above waterline, at some airports runways are being used to park out of service airplanes, even Los Angeles has no traffic issues, oil demand is diving. and citizens are hoarding. I think we are on the precipice of major inflation. One scenario I can imagine for the market plunge ending in April has more to do with the measuring tool, namely the dollar losing value faster the wealth represented by the market depletes.

In the depression of the thirties, FDR had huge government programs that arguably delayed the recovery, but did leave a legacy of infrastructure the continues to contribute today, an example being the dams controlling floods, generating electricity, irrigation and recreational opportunity. After WW2, Eisenhower had his interstate highway system. Things changed in the mid 60's. Johnson had his guns and butter, Viet Nam war and Great Society including war on poverty. These had cost but contributed no wealth to society in whole. This was reflected in demand for gold rather than dollars 'forcing' Nixon to replace the last gold backing of the dollar to full faith and trust in the government, misplaced faith as all monetary discipline was removed. With that the country did not address its problems with corrective measures, rather every problem has been 'financialized' or papered over with printed money and debt. And the cost?

One cost has been destruction of the dollar's wealth or purchasing power. Measured in gold, $35 per ounce has become $1600, or the dollar has about 2.2% of its 1971 value. The Dow 30 was about 1000, to be on par with the change in gold it would have to be around 45,000. The ability of our country to generate wealth has been weakened as we have offshored much of industry during the last 50 years. The mantra was were becoming a service oriented economy, but what was forgotten was wealth is generated by growing things, making things, mining raw materials and via intellectual gains protected by patents. Service is wealth consuming for the most part. What exacerbated this was a simple nomenclature change, everything became an industry. Wealth generating activities used to be called industries and things like banking, education, dining out, medical etc. were rightly called services. The other damaging nomenclature change has been conflating wealth and dollars. Dollars can be printed, wealth cannot.

Another major cost has been the indebtedness of every aspect of our country. By monetizing every issue and artificially fixing interest rates ever lower, debt has become ever cheaper, artificially cheaper. When things are cheap, demand goes up. Debt was made cheap artificially, thus we now have unrealistic debt. This is probably the easiest market dislocation to understand. To maintain balance or an economy free of dislocations, free market price discovery is required, including and possibly especially for interest rates.

In this age of financialization rather than truly addressing economic issues, huge discrepancies have developed. Medicine and financial 'industries' are the poster children. Medicine has been exempt from virtually every anti-trust and consumer protection law on the books. As such it has grown to more than 20% of GDP. I am very happy for the quality and life saving advancements that have been made, but we as a whole, have way over paid for these developments and continued to be charged confiscatory rates for the services rendered because free market price discovery have been impaired. It used to be a virtue to save for a large purchase, but social pressure via advertising and the 'need it now' mentality have pushed debt financing for nearly everything. This has been key to dollar printing 'success'. Dollars can be created via printing or fractional reserve banking for lending. Each new fiat dollar spends like legacy dollars so the scheme continues. What is wrong is the new dollars steal their wealth from existing dollar denominated assets held by the common citizen transferring it to the connected, the very wealthy and the public on the dole. We have run out of wealth to transfer evidenced by the need for ever increasing stimulus packages to get any results. Another wrong with respect to our debt based fiat monetary system and fractional reserve banking is the financial 'industry' is renting money it did not acquire via what could be considered honest means.

Given the above diatribe, It is quite likely conditions are now ripe for huge economic dislocations to begin painful free market price discovery leading to economic balance in the supply for goods and services to meet the demand.


  • ken 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #19
With liquidity drying up people will spend less, home purchase will become non-existent. Homes go down in price. Seeing how I no longer own a home I will wait for the foreclosures to start before I buy. I also see food inflation. In my area people are still raiding grocery stores of paper products, eggs, but not beef products. Food storage outlets are all sold out. Thankfully I have several months of dried goods. Longer if I actually have to open the sack of red beans. One can survive for a long time on them. Maybe my fat ass will lose some serious weight.

On edit: I studied where these malaria drugs come from. I was surprised, or shocked. Its Wormwood or Artemisia. I use it almost daily. I use it for cancer to keep it from coming back. It also keeps your spirits up and digestion health. I check Amazon and people are on to this. It is selling out. I buy the concentrate from Herb Pharm. Best quality you can buy.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000153ALU/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o06_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGTPnEc2xu4&feature=youtu.be
  • Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 11:23:09 AM by ken

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #20
My Lorax senses are tingling. I get the feeling of a bounce in the stock market. it hit a target, A break of that will confirm for a lot of shorts. The perfect time to find a hidden trendline and have a covering rally with margin calls for the ones being cocky.
Just a random thought.

We are getting close to the end of the line.  Yet the engineer has the throttle at full speed ahead.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #21
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #22
It really looks like that could be it for the dead cat bounce.
If i were to make a wild guess, we see lows in the summer while it is looking like we beat covid.
That would be a perfect time to bounce up into elections where covid starts it's second wave.
guess who is going to win if covid is beat and the SM rallies 5 months into the election.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • ken 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #23
It really looks like that could be it for the dead cat bounce.
If i were to make a wild guess, we see lows in the summer while it is looking like we beat covid.
That would be a perfect time to bounce up into elections where covid starts it's second wave.
guess who is going to win if covid is beat and the SM rallies 5 months into the election.
Why Donald Trump. I think he wins either way. People are waking up to what socialism has done to this country.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #24
DT is just a front man for the elite's destruction of the USA.  The DNC is a co-conspirator.
Taking care of those who can't isn't the problem. Giving our taxes to companies that should fail is much more of a problem than food and healthcare for the poor is.  Me paying more in federal taxes than Amazon is a perfect example of the US corporate welfare state that brought us to this point.  The powers that be will insure we have another 4 years of exponential growth for the .01% at the expense of the wealth creators, the middle class.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • ken 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #25
DT is just a front man for the elite's destruction of the USA.  The DNC is a co-conspirator.
Taking care of those who can't isn't the problem. Giving our taxes to companies that should fail is much more of a problem than food and healthcare for the poor is.  Me paying more in federal taxes than Amazon is a perfect example of the US corporate welfare state that brought us to this point.  The powers that be will insure we have another 4 years of exponential growth for the .01% at the expense of the wealth creators, the middle class.
Can't disagree with that. Its a choice between Satan or his son.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #26


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DOW slingshot
Reply #27

For Entertainment Purposes Only.