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Topic: TMAC (Read 1020 times) previous topic - next topic

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TMAC (TMMFF) was on a comparison slide in another company's presentation, and that got me to have a look. They are a Nunavut new producer still working the kinks from a 20 year projected mine operation at 160,000 to 180,000 gold ounces per year (AISC is projected around or just under $1000 per ounce). 2P reserves are around 3.6 million ounces and some 5 million more in less defined categories. Resource Capital Funds, Newmont Goldcorp, and Blackrock have 30.7%, 28.5% and 12.9% of shares outstanding, so there is heavy hitter backing. Further, Sprott has lent them funds for the initial build. Certainly those four companies did DD and found the company valuable. Terrance MacGibbon is the executive chairman and he has a stellar record for mining company development. I hold no position, but the company looks attractive.

Charts are a bit ugly, but the fundamental story suggest they might be at a bottom and would get an extra boost with improving gold pricing. Note the death cross and improving MACD on first chart. On the second chart, share price is challenging the 20 day MA, RSI is improving, and the very short term STO's have turned up. Do your own DD.

Reply #1
I took a position in TMAC (TMMFF) today. Chart is improving. Assuming the holders listed above have 72% of shares in hands that are not likely to sell as their cost is probably higher than current share price, only 28% is float so volatility could be high. The move today might be in sympathy with the SPVEF buyout as this company situation looks ripe for a take out. Chart is improving:

Reply #2
I added to my TMAC position today. I think this could be a long term hold for me.

Reply #3

This company continues to perform very well. They have a new presentation on the website

Reply #4
For the last six or seven weeks, TMR has sloshed around at $6, but while doing so a golden cross has been painted. MACD could look a little better as it has deteriorated during the consolidation.This is a very little known ultra low volume stock with some 75%  held by 3 or 4 institutions that invested at higher prices so they are likely pretty 'strong hands'. They have ramped production to a projected 160 to 180,000 profitable ounces this year.

Reply #5
TMAC was supposed to report today after the market closed. I just checked their web page and nothing. there is still 2.5 hours left in today, but being this late for a Toronto based company is cause for concern. PVG waited till 9:00PM to report their disaster. I have posted favorably about TMAC, but failure to meet their own scheduled release is not a good sign.

Reply #6
TMAC forecast they would meet guidance a couple weeks ago and now they will not, lower grades till first quarter next year and not sterilizing mine reserves with non optimum operating strategy. OK, I can go with that but I believe they knew it a couple weeks ago. That aside, earnings report is pretty good bolstered by product price for the most part, but I believe this is a carrot and donkey situation, shareholders have to wait for the increased price and rate combination for the amplified share price kicker.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
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Reply #7
shitty of them. 
Investors would be better off with penny stocks, at least the potential reward would justify the gamble.
Forecasting meeting only weeks before missing should be a crime. 
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Reply #8
Recently, I have been rather disappointed with management to say the least, primarily because they have demonstrated lack of candor with shareholders. Three entities with insiders hold about 70% of the outstanding shares and somehow I have the felling they had a heads up, not that there was much they could do with the information. The three probably obtained their positions at much higher share prices thus the bulk of the shares are probably not available at current prices.

That vented, I had another look at the company and except for adding debt obligations when they have decent cash flow to fund operations and exploration, the company seems to operate well, has good valuation metrics, operates in a good neighborhood politically albeit harsh weather, and has long mine life and very good exploration potential. Charts look like the past month was bottom forming. With AISC just below $1200/ounce, leverage to gold price is high. I continue to hold my position and may add to it, particularly if they have a share price reaction to lousy 4th quarter production and earnings as they should recover smartly with product price improvement.

Short term chart indicators are quite positive:

Longer term, there is a lot of room for improvement, but that is what buying at the bottom often looks like.

Reply #9
Management having been less than forthright wrt going to Maverix for financing set aside, the company looks like a good investment with good production at an AISC of just under $1200 for good leverage to gold price, good mine life over 20 years, great exploration potential and results, and about 70% of the shares tied up with 4 investors that were likely acquired at much higher prices meaning they are probably in very strong hands, thus the real float is quite small adding to leverage and share price to NAV ratio is 0.47 among the lowest in their peer group. The financing mentioned above was a serious hit to share price, but as the chart shows the damage seems to be halted and a strong share price base formed. Short term, BB's are severely pinched and short term oscillators are biased positive suggesting the break from current trend will be up.

Longer term the chart sucks, but with the short term looking good and gold looking to rally big next year, this situation may be more reflective of getting in at a bottom. Incrementally with share price this low, there may have been some tax advantage selling that is probably nearly over. I will likely add to my holdings soon.

Reply #10
The rally I expected did come but it evaporated and then some in short order. As mentioned in the thread above, I was not a happy camper with the funding that I still do not believe was necessary nor with management not being candid about it in a timely manner. All that aside and with the good things fundamentally detailed above, the company looks to have made a bottom and could be an outsized mover in the coming months. STO curves crossed positive from wildly oversold values and MACD has narrowed the bearish spread with share price coming off the lower BB, again. I am considering averaging down as fundamentals and TA along with the tail wind of higher gold prices and buyout possibilities should all help share price going forward.

Reply #11
TMAC, a company with huge potential to produce large volumes of gold economically, has agreed to be purchased by a Chinese Communist gold mining company for a C$1.75, and the two largest shareholders owning 58% agreed to vote for the deal. Unless the crown government steps in, this is another free world wealth generating business handed over to the Chinese for next to nothing. Once again the shareholders have been sold out by management.

Reply #12
TMAC, a company with huge potential to produce large volumes of gold economically, has agreed to be purchased by a Chinese Communist gold mining company for a C$1.75, and the two largest shareholders owning 58% agreed to vote for the deal. Unless the crown government steps in, this is another free world wealth generating business handed over to the Chinese for next to nothing. Once again the shareholders have been sold out by management.

Further to the quoted post, on January 20, 2020 TMAC put out a new release from which the following quote, "Jason Neal, President and Chief Executive Officer of TMAC, stated, "With the support of Resource Capital Funds and Newmont Corporation, representing 58.5% of our shares outstanding, we have initiated a strategic process to explore potential alternatives to maximize shareholder value, potentially enhance trading liquidity and generate the financial strength which will allow Hope Bay to achieve its potential". 

On the same day the shares closed at $C 2.85, so the shares lost $1.10 over the course of five months and that meets the goal of enhancing shareholder value? Since the two large shareholders have 58+% and have agreed to support the deal, minority shareholder have been fleeced. Also note the chart shows serious price improvement until the deal was announced, since the deal price is just slightly above current trading value. It is one thing to get fleeced, it is quite another when the fleecing is subsidizing the Chinese, especially after infecting the world with Wuhan virus. I hope Canadian regulators do the right thing and block this deal.