Silver Stocker

Main Forums => Silver - General Discussion => Topic started by: edthelorax on June 23, 2017, 09:35:45 AM

Title: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on June 23, 2017, 09:35:45 AM
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/0pz1pxFo/)
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/F0JXNfa8/)
The bottom is very close, if that wasn't it. I feel we will be able to tell from the PA in the miners. They will continue higher if that was bottom. I expect a break of this year long consolidation this fall.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on June 25, 2017, 06:30:29 PM
I agree the bottom may be in and if not, very close. Lower support line and upper resistance line form a wedge that is indicating break out is coming soon. MACD is near to bullish orientation and moving in that direction with RSI trending up as well. Price is in lower half of BB spread that is widening indicating the upward bias is more likely to continue than reverse. PSAR looks about to turn up.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on June 25, 2017, 06:32:55 PM
left off the curves with a fat finger move:

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/8ToSbDXM/)


(https://www.tradingview.com/x/dHYacyoh/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on June 25, 2017, 09:35:52 PM
Looking over the past, it doesn't happen often, but we need to stay realistic to further downside. Hope not.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/n6uT82bt/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on June 26, 2017, 07:43:56 AM
Realistically looking to the downside is a constant must, especially when at 0400 hours when PM's are in low volume hours, someone('s) has need to sell an excessive quantity, probably a quantity not in possession so they papered up, to be sure they get the lowest price possible. Makes perfect sense to me!

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/v4dMAq2l/)

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/FduTO6Ij/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on June 26, 2017, 08:55:03 AM
Interesting bottom touch. It could be that signal.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/3E0a7VUO/)
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/AR9CcITA/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Erich on June 26, 2017, 01:21:00 PM
Interesting bottom touch. It could be that signal.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/3E0a7VUO/)
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/AR9CcITA/)
impressive turn around on the GDX with gold and silver still down. Good call.
ER
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on June 26, 2017, 04:42:24 PM
All I can say about the Yen is that it's last run up in the afternoon didn't come from a solid foundation, making it weak and more prone to collapse. Watching this juncture after hours, the Yen doesn't have the real solid foundation I'd like to see, however it's looking pretty strong at this time. We'll see what tonight and tomorrow will bring. GL.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on June 27, 2017, 09:39:44 AM
Successful spikes in for the GDX and GDXJ, not seeing much in Gold and Silver and the Yen looks to pretty much unaffected. Disconnect?
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on June 27, 2017, 09:49:11 AM
Successful spikes in for the GDX and GDXJ, not seeing much in Gold and Silver and the Yen looks to pretty much unaffected. Disconnect?
That is what I am looking for, when demand overcomes the Yen it can start to really move. With all the turmoil building up on the political scene it may be soon. Right now I have a third position in GPL. There will be a pullback in some of the miners like PVG and SSRI soon. Time to buy?
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Erich on June 27, 2017, 09:56:04 AM
Successful spikes in for the GDX and GDXJ, not seeing much in Gold and Silver and the Yen looks to pretty much unaffected. Disconnect?
That is what I am looking for, when demand overcomes the Yen it can start to really move. With all the turmoil building up on the political scene it may be soon. Right now I have a third position in GPL. There will be a pullback in some of the miners like PVG and SSRI soon. Time to buy?
  Could use another 500 shares of SSRI. It always seems to run away from me. I will hold what I have for now. The dollar is due for a bounce one of these days which should drop the miners for a bit. long AG SSRI CDE. Unhedged at the moment
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on June 27, 2017, 10:01:02 AM
Successful spikes in for the GDX and GDXJ, not seeing much in Gold and Silver and the Yen looks to pretty much unaffected. Disconnect?
That is what I am looking for, when demand overcomes the Yen it can start to really move. With all the turmoil building up on the political scene it may be soon. Right now I have a third position in GPL. There will be a pullback in some of the miners like PVG and SSRI soon. Time to buy?
  Could use another 500 shares of SSRI. It always seems to run away from me. I will hold what I have for now. The dollar is due for a bounce one of these days which should drop the miners for a bit. long AG SSRI CDE. Unhedged at the moment
SSRI looks like the king to me. I will buy that and AG. CDE looks like its going to be a dog this year.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on June 27, 2017, 10:06:49 AM
Successful spikes in for the GDX and GDXJ, not seeing much in Gold and Silver and the Yen looks to pretty much unaffected. Disconnect?
That is what I am looking for, when demand overcomes the Yen it can start to really move. With all the turmoil building up on the political scene it may be soon. Right now I have a third position in GPL. There will be a pullback in some of the miners like PVG and SSRI soon. Time to buy?
Even though it is possible for Gold and Silver to fire off today, I don't think it is likely to with any great surge. It's looking like pivoting to me, a setup or slow swing. Obviously something is going on in the GDX's arena. Still unclear and a little risky yet, early buying would be in line with what appears to be happening now IMO. GL and I hope to see continued swing play.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on June 27, 2017, 05:55:40 PM
Here is an interesting and potentially different take on the PM take down yesterday morning and thoughts on what is driving PM prices plus some additional PM information.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_062717.html
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on June 29, 2017, 08:41:28 AM
Another "special morning" for gold getting special attention from the short sale lemmings trying to get the least for their product, only an hour earlier than Monday.

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/Um4OApkQ/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on June 29, 2017, 09:26:56 AM
According to harveyorganblog.com the raid on gold and silver may continue today.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sn00p on June 30, 2017, 09:27:00 PM
I think i heard somewhere the indian wedding season starts soon? starts sept ends oct?
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on July 02, 2017, 10:00:51 AM
I think i heard somewhere the indian wedding season starts soon? starts sept ends oct?
I don't believe the hype that India drives the gold prices.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 03, 2017, 07:34:16 PM
Interesting charts on gold silver and the speculation that is suggesting a bottom in both metals.


Charts did not post so have a look at the link, it is all charts and the two I reference are near the bottom.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan070317.html

Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on July 04, 2017, 02:45:34 PM
Historically a near miss on the MACD is a devastating condition and looks like it takes about a month to get through on average. At this point, I'm curious how things will play out tomorrow. As remote a possibility as it is at this time, a strong down day followed by a strong up day split across the holiday might be viewed like a candle with a long tail. Very, very remote, but a possibility none the less. Right now IMO, I'd just figure on more downside that will hopefully swing around sometime in August now. We'll see what happens day by day. GL.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/3K3YkNkH/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: CLARKBAR on July 05, 2017, 11:31:32 AM
buying the small gold coins today.. mint struck years ago and collected only by us SMALLS who remain committed longs. Premiums are now negligible. Unless significant further downside here ensues, imprecise values seem unlikely to waver.

 
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on July 05, 2017, 04:52:40 PM
It's about time.
This looks Very bottomy to me.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/mwl3b6n4/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 05, 2017, 05:48:30 PM
Good post Ed, a bit of encouragement is helpful in this time that I believe may be the last minimal downturn before a sustained and meaningful bull run.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sn00p on July 05, 2017, 05:49:36 PM
Interesting charts on gold silver and the speculation that is suggesting a bottom in both metals.


Charts did not post so have a look at the link, it is all charts and the two I reference are near the bottom.

the miners chart was nice

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan070317.html


Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on July 05, 2017, 07:30:49 PM
Its time to buy AG. Look at the chart.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 05, 2017, 09:13:06 PM
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/OPh10nwp/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on July 07, 2017, 02:27:00 PM
What a mess at CME earlier with silver. The same thing happened in crypto the other week when ETH dropped to 13$ from $320 a large market sell caused a cascade of SL's being hit.
Very similar to the Trump spike in gold, but the other direction.
I am going to take advantage of the fire sale prices and add some Phys.
This is an updated version of the silver chart i published. I have 3 green because i didn't know which would be good. i added a red so silver will STOP going down.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qubt6fvQ/)
this is a link to the original.
silver chart from Dec.  (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/2qu6p19u-Possible-consolidation-for-silver/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on July 07, 2017, 07:40:06 PM
I see silver about even if not a small downtrend. Gold looks better and is still trending up by the lines.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 07, 2017, 09:09:17 PM
It's about time.
This looks Very bottomy to me.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/mwl3b6n4/)

There are two articles at safehaven.com that discuss gold seasonality, which should commence an uptrend now if they pan out, also coinciding with some of the comments on the board calling for a bottom

Links: (Note the first article by Hamilton is a bit wordy, the second is concise.)

http://www.safehaven.com/article/44580/gold-stocks-summer-bottom

http://www.safehaven.com/article/44579/the-golden-age-has-just-begun
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on July 10, 2017, 08:06:21 AM
Silver broke down through the read and green. Last night was a full moon, a great time to turn higher. Monday morning is also a good time, the weekend gave traders plenty of time to get scared and decide to sell. Monday morn. 10AM would make a great washout bottom.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xo6qClbe/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on July 10, 2017, 10:03:20 AM
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/LlVtnvXt/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 11, 2017, 07:40:55 AM
I just posted a link supporting a gold bottom at this juncture, this is a Reader's digest version for silver, same conclusion fortunately.

https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=67
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: edthelorax on July 14, 2017, 09:30:15 AM
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/pnqCR2JJ/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 14, 2017, 10:07:10 AM
A horizontal resistance is at $16.02 for silver, a few pennies gets silver through that and we could see $16.80. BB's do not look shiny as they arein a down trend, but the lower band is showing signs of a slope reversal. MACD is looking a lot better, possibly switching to bullish orientation today or early next week and RSI has moved up from an oversold level. Corresponding with the RSI low is a long tail down, maybe indicating capitulation. COT data (not shown) are favorable for a switch to rising PM prices. We well indeed may have a secular reversal in its infancy given all the other indicators we post on this forum.



(https://www.tradingview.com/x/gH4q56rZ/)
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 24, 2017, 07:49:59 AM
Here is the lead paragraph in a Clive Maund silver update "There will be no equivocating, fence sitting or any kind of hedging or expression of doubt in what is written in this update. Let me be absolutely clear: - we are now at the threshold of a barnburner rally in the Precious Metals sector, and silver is set to scream higher driven by a massive short covering panic, because short positions in it have ballooned in recent weeks to levels way above what we saw in December 2015, when silver hit its final bearmarket bottom, before the big sector rally during the 1st half of 2016"

Sounds like a back up the truck moment. I hate to say this as it could be a jinx; I am starting to get a little excited with all the quality analysts providing charts and fundamental data supporting a secular move up in PM's.

Link to article:

https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=4243
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Erich on July 24, 2017, 08:29:25 AM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 24, 2017, 08:44:18 AM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER

You are probably wise being yet to be convinced this a 'the' breakout, but the downside risk continues to diminish. With all my options having expired, I am hesitant to write any calls thinking there might be a lot of money left on the table.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 24, 2017, 02:37:51 PM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER

So General market down a small amount, gold and silver essentially flat and GDX's down plus minus 2%. Anyone have any thoughts on the PM stock disconnect to the downside? I do not think it lasts.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: ken on July 24, 2017, 02:51:28 PM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER

So General market down a small amount, gold and silver essentially flat and GDX's down plus minus 2%. Anyone have any thoughts on the PM stock disconnect to the downside? I do not think it lasts.
Well that's like asking why AG is down 4% or PVG 3.85%. Profit taking on low volume? Or is the selling going into another sector. I really don't know.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Erich on July 24, 2017, 03:04:41 PM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER

So General market down a small amount, gold and silver essentially flat and GDX's down plus minus 2%. Anyone have any thoughts on the PM stock disconnect to the downside? I do not think it lasts.
Well that's like asking why AG is down 4% or PVG 3.85%. Profit taking on low volume? Or is the selling going into another sector. I really don't know.
Looks like BS to me. Wading in here with half a positon AG.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Chart_ist on July 24, 2017, 03:06:44 PM
Nice to see some bullish sentiment on my first day back! Holding CDE and SSRI 33% cash.
Not 100 percent convinced this a real break out................................... yet.
ER

So General market down a small amount, gold and silver essentially flat and GDX's down plus minus 2%. Anyone have any thoughts on the PM stock disconnect to the downside? I do not think it lasts.
I'm not seeing anything at this time that would suggest a swing in favor to the Yen. The Yen has been "stepping down" and I think that is likely what today is, even though we will need to watch out for surprises. Silver looks solid, Gold looks pretty good. I'm looking for the Yen to step down again Tuesday or Wednesday. We'll see. GL.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: sandybeachdave on July 24, 2017, 04:02:57 PM
On the yen story, I would expect the metals to move on that change as well as the stocks. It might be algos working their magic or possibly some profit taking, but I would not expect that to be so wide spread. Chances are it is temporary. I added a little to my BALMF and held off writing covered calls thinking this down draft will bounce before the week is out.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Nikko on July 24, 2017, 04:47:26 PM
personally i did well on my last trade as sold AG and CDE for 11.5% gains...
I have a simple rule trading and its working for me...buy on 3 consecutive down days...have 4% stop loss and sell once I hit 10% gain with trailing stops in the money.
Miners are a big bust on a LT basis and until the trend changes one should only trade it.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: Nikko on July 24, 2017, 04:48:19 PM
I was itching to buy AG in CAD but resisted today...have to stay disciplined.
Title: Re: Bottom?
Post by: CLARKBAR on July 24, 2017, 05:16:18 PM
Nickk , discipline~!  We can't see an example of it's use... OFTEN ENOUGH~!  Thank you... it is a game of survive to thrive and you demonstrate it's use.