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Topic: USDJPY 2018 (Read 270 times) previous topic - next topic

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USDJPY 2018
Beginning to display bullish sentiment. It should be interesting to see exactly what happens in the very near future.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #1
Strong leg up in the yen. What I see as likely governing lines. GL.


Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #2
same long term graph but on semi-log scale that I prefer to use.



Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #3
same long term graph but on semi-log scale that I prefer to use.
Yeah, the charts are not a real eye opener. Just spotting likely failure in the yen at around its 10 DMA if it continues a weak pattern or 50 DMA if the yen is going to breathe some, otherwise, big surprise. Pretty bloody today following a strong up day. To be expected, but the drops today looked pretty deep in miners so I took a look at conditions.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #4
I took a shot at guessing a Least Mean Squares Fit line through all the data available on our charting feature and while certainly not right one can conclude the long term trend is down (meaning the yen in the denominator is getting stronger against the dollar). I was in Japan in the mid 80s and remember exchanging yen for dollars at around 280 to 1 so the trend is even longer. While hard to see, the 50 week MA did cross above the 200 week only to fall below again recently. Looking at the chart, one can reasonably expect the trace to move just below the 100 mark.

Underlying the ratio is each country's ability to manage all aspects of its economy, or maybe more appropriately mismanage. Both countries have huge public debts with the US above 1 and Japan above 2 when comparing to their GDP. Both countries have had fiscal policy designed to stimulate inflation via trashing the value of the currency. Neither country has any plan or desire to fund their government on an ongoing basis let alone address the humongous debt. With higher debt to GDP ratio, Japan might be considered more motivated to instigate inflation. Both countries are dependent on imports thus have an interest in a strong currency, but in the end, the short term view of trashing the currency to stimulate exports will likely prevail. Kuroda and the Japanese bank seem more motivated in their policies, so I am going with Japan being the winner at trashing its currency. All that to say I do not see anything fundamentally to think long term the trend line will not prevail. One kicker is the dollar's trade status, lose that and all bets are off on how far the dollar drops.




  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #5
This may be deliberate. Lower the dollar and that cheap Chinese plastic crap gets more expensive. With manufacturing set to rise in the USA, this may lead to a successful buy American campaign and increased exports.

When I worked on cars for a living, (2 years ago) quality control was tossed out the window and the manufacturer's either had a massive influx of counterfeit parts (wheel bearings) or were producing substandard parts.  I know with the wheel bearings it was counterfeit parts because it crossed all the brands. This is one way costs are cut to increase profits. Expect more of this as time marches on.

Some crap never changes.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #6
Simple enough. Can gold pull off a cup w/handle from here to keep things going for 2018. I'd say one to three weeks to work through.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #7
This may be deliberate. Lower the dollar and that cheap Chinese plastic crap gets more expensive. With manufacturing set to rise in the USA, this may lead to a successful buy American campaign and increased exports.

When I worked on cars for a living, (2 years ago) quality control was tossed out the window and the manufacturer's either had a massive influx of counterfeit parts (wheel bearings) or were producing substandard parts.  I know with the wheel bearings it was counterfeit parts because it crossed all the brands. This is one way costs are cut to increase profits. Expect more of this as time marches on.

Some crap never changes.
Trump's whole program isn't it? Increase sales, increase manufacturing, stimulate the economy. Business man and business president for years to come.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #8
This may be deliberate. Lower the dollar and that cheap Chinese plastic crap gets more expensive. With manufacturing set to rise in the USA, this may lead to a successful buy American campaign and increased exports.

When I worked on cars for a living, (2 years ago) quality control was tossed out the window and the manufacturer's either had a massive influx of counterfeit parts (wheel bearings) or were producing substandard parts.  I know with the wheel bearings it was counterfeit parts because it crossed all the brands. This is one way costs are cut to increase profits. Expect more of this as time marches on.

Some crap never changes.
Trump's whole program isn't it? Increase sales, increase manufacturing, stimulate the economy. Business man and business president for years to come.
My concerns are as usual with any new prez. How competent are his economic advisors?

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #9
I took a shot at guessing a Least Mean Squares Fit line through all the data available on our charting feature and while certainly not right one can conclude the long term trend is down (meaning the yen in the denominator is getting stronger against the dollar). I was in Japan in the mid 80s and remember exchanging yen for dollars at around 280 to 1 so the trend is even longer. While hard to see, the 50 week MA did cross above the 200 week only to fall below again recently. Looking at the chart, one can reasonably expect the trace to move just below the 100 mark.

Underlying the ratio is each country's ability to manage all aspects of its economy, or maybe more appropriately mismanage. Both countries have huge public debts with the US above 1 and Japan above 2 when comparing to their GDP. Both countries have had fiscal policy designed to stimulate inflation via trashing the value of the currency. Neither country has any plan or desire to fund their government on an ongoing basis let alone address the humongous debt. With higher debt to GDP ratio, Japan might be considered more motivated to instigate inflation. Both countries are dependent on imports thus have an interest in a strong currency, but in the end, the short term view of trashing the currency to stimulate exports will likely prevail. Kuroda and the Japanese bank seem more motivated in their policies, so I am going with Japan being the winner at trashing its currency. All that to say I do not see anything fundamentally to think long term the trend line will not prevail. One kicker is the dollar's trade status, lose that and all bets are off on how far the dollar drops.




Best guess to what you are saying on the daily chart.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #10
Wednesday through Friday is the date range.

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #11


Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #12
Looking at possibilities ...

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #13

Re: USDJPY 2018
Reply #14


What are you intending to convey with this chart?