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Topic: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY) (Read 831 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #15

Another chart of gold shows a horizontal resistance line at around $1257 to $1260 and price has violated the 40 dma currently at $1253 indication price could be at a decision point. Had we not had the manipulative beat down action during the wee hours of Monday morning, this comment would not be relevant. RSI is not much help wondering between 40 and 50 no definitive slope bias. 40 DMA continues to trace above 100 DMA for a positive orientation. As I said in the previous post the charts are positive but could be more convincing.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/D5IJqL98/

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #16
Messed up again, here is the chart:


Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #17
Right now it looks like the Yen will continue to play through with Gold and Silver still pointing towards upward direction. I think under these conditions that we may see a shaky day, with the morning being rough and recovering / improving in the afternoon. Likely to be more bottom development and possibly another long tail.  GL.

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #18
Right now it looks like the Yen will continue to play through with Gold and Silver still pointing towards upward direction. I think under these conditions that we may see a shaky day, with the morning being rough and recovering / improving in the afternoon. Likely to be more bottom development and possibly another long tail.  GL.

It is turning out to be a very poor day for PM stocks with GDX and GDXJ down well over 2%, disproportionate to the modest declines in product. It is likely that the conventional stock market is dragging everything down. One might also ask if this is a roll over that starts a major downturn in the conventional market, one that will not come in Yellen's lifetime. It is coming any many are predicting soon, but no one knows. We will all know looking back. October seems to be a common for a market thumping.

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #19
Gold appears to have responded to the pullback in the Yen. The GDX's are just horrible today and I've come to the conclusion that the GDX's are what matters most with miner performance. I'm not seeing it as a real big deal at this time. I would attribute it to a simple reset. Greater clarity would be nice overall, but I think that is likely to occur after the 4th. I was looking at the Yen and saw that for continuation in regards to it's Arc it will have to come back around July 3 - 5th, so it's 50/50 until we get some real clarity IMO. I may throw a Yen chart up later, right now I've got things to do. GORO made a nice pop today, probably because it's looking like the stronger and safer stock to stay with during this uncertainty. I trends to work that way on bad days. GL all.

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #20
Prospects of the Yen as I'm seeing it. Looks likely to sit on its 40 MA and then.....

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #21
Looking at a 7 month chart of GDXJ as a proxy, we might be in for a low volatility PM stock market for another month. Descending and ascending trend lines intersect mid August, so we should get a break out resolution by then. RSI is range bound between 40 and 60 with a slightly downward slope indicating no movement forthcoming. MACD is lethargic around the zero line but on a real close examination, it looks to be moving toward a very slight bear bias supporting the lower trend line intersection approach at about $33.20. BB% has peaked but again is lethargically moving off the peak, so low amplitude price decline suggested there. The two red lines on the chart form an estimated horizontal resistance band between $33.30 and $34.30.
My take away from this is that covered call positions written for July 21 expiration at current or slightly higher strike prices are likely to expire worthless. Every stock has to examined individually to raise confidence in the conclusion, but in general, I will be writing calls during the trading day today.
Comments?



  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #22
You may be right on that downtrend. Looking at the dollar/jpn it seems a uptrend is possible.



Looking at PVG we see that a pullback is in order:


CDE, higher lows


So it looks like the best way to profit is to buy and sell on up days until this resolves and a direction forward is clear.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #23
Yen chart above is old. Thought the link would update it... Here's a link...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/xNa36KGe-Yen-dollar/

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #24

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #25

And that is the roll of the dice. Yen or gold?

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #26
In response to at Ken's reply 22 in this thread, here is another chart supporting his thoughts:



I agree PVG, which has been a major disappointment since announcing their first pour, is looking like another correction is in the cards, albeit a minor correction. Converging trend lines intersect late July at about $9.10. BB $ bandwidth has peaked in this narrowing range and MACD is looking like it is about to roll over. Up trending PSAR is long in the tooth for the short cycles. If the share price seriously violates the upper trend line, then these thoughts go out the window.

An upward move has support from a fundamental perspective. In the second quarter earnings report due in early August, the company will have their first revenue from operating mine production and will probably give a gold production rate with updated time frame guidance on achieving design production. I would also expect they will have positive things to say about their exploration progress. The earnings release timing and intersection of the trend lines is within a couple weeks so there is a rough congruence with that data.

Bottom line, I expect a little downturn but maintaining support just above $9.00 then a steady up move mid term.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #27
Here is a updated chart on the Yen.
Extended bollinger band . Downward trend since January.
20 day MA downward
40 day MA upward
Ready to touch.

Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #28
GDX's bottoms look nice on my board today pointing to a good day come Monday. Day by day, piece by piece. Nice works posters IMO!

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: July (XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ & USDJPY)
Reply #29
GDX's bottoms look nice on my board today pointing to a good day come Monday. Day by day, piece by piece. Nice works posters IMO!
Have a good weekend!