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Topic: some help pls (Read 146 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • Nikko 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
some help pls
To anyone out there:
I mentioned a while ago that I was shorting RY ( Royal Bank )...due to oil losses and Canadian real estate bubble.
So far so good as my short is at 73.25 avg...I like this trade a lot and have a big position.
For the technical analysis guys..what are you seeing now?
Thanks

Re: some help pls
Reply #1
To anyone out there:
I mentioned a while ago that I was shorting RY ( Royal Bank )...due to oil losses and Canadian real estate bubble.
So far so good as my short is at 73.25 avg...I like this trade a lot and have a big position.
For the technical analysis guys..what are you seeing now?
Thanks


I do not consider myself a TA specialist rather an amateur. With that qualification, I think the down turn has a little way to go, but like the US, Canada is not going to let their banks suffer the consequences of their self inflicted, injurious, poor business decisions and practices. While the value of the company may go south, they will torture the Looney to the point that shares hold their nominal value to give the false impression that all is well with Canadian banks.

That said, the share price is below all major MA's less the 200 day, a sign of further decay forthcoming.  RSI is low, but not in over sold territory suggesting buyers are not ready to accumulate hand over fist. MACD and STO's are not positive. Share price trace is departing from the lower Bollinger Band via horizontal movement with the bands moving seriously south, not a bullish scenario, but not a suggestion of share price erosion to come either. On balance volume is not positive. A double top exists around US$75 (September 2014 and February 2017 for  longer term view). All that leads me to believe the share price has more to go on the downside short term, but at some indeterminable point the Canadian government will intervene, overriding all TA.

I considered shorting the Russell 2000 a while back and fortunately held off for basically the same reasons. There is no reason for the Russell to be advancing, or all stock markets generally for that matter, from 350 to near 1400 since the 2008 melt down with GDP growing around 2% per year. It is an unsustainable situation, but the remedy will be money printing in various forms to combat the required market correction. The value of the Russell will go down, but the value of the measuring tool will go down as well, maybe faster. One must be very careful measuring with an elastic yard stick! The erosion of the measuring tool is one tipping point toward long bias in the market.

My thoughts, hope they help Nikko.

  • Nikko 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: some help pls
Reply #2
helps a lot...if anyone can further comment...Id appreciate

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: some help pls
Reply #3
helps a lot...if anyone can further comment...Id appreciate
I consider myself a amateur even though I have done this off and on for a decade. 

I agree with sandybeachdave. With all the technicals negative I would leave it alone. And yes, money printing will surely follow. One thing about politicians is that they are not economists and will do just enough to cover the problem over with monetary whitewash at the expense of the taxpayers. 


  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: some help pls
Reply #4
I think it looks like a good short, i put the tp's in red,
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • Nikko 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: some help pls
Reply #5
thanks Ed!!
Moodys just downgraded its LT debt by a notch last night...good for my short!

Re: some help pls
Reply #6
To anyone out there:
I mentioned a while ago that I was shorting RY ( Royal Bank )...due to oil losses and Canadian real estate bubble.
So far so good as my short is at 73.25 avg...I like this trade a lot and have a big position.
For the technical analysis guys..what are you seeing now?
Thanks


Nikko, I stumbled onto this article about comparisons to 2008 and the article had a lot of chart data on Canadian banks, all the big ones except of course the one you have shorted. Concerning the banks the verses are a bit different but the song's chorus is the same, so inference to RY should be straight forward. Author is looking to the fall for the fireworks. Here is the link:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/44382/oh-canada-a-cold-wind-blows-from-the-great-white-north

  • Nikko 
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: some help pls
Reply #7
thanks sandy...great article and much appreciated!
My short is coming alive to say the least...I am all gold/silver and miners on the long side and a big short in RY. I see a lot of pain on the charts.