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Topic: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April) (Read 415 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #15

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #16
Nearing what should define the rest of the day gold appears to be holding sustaining performance, silver has been steadily pulling back in value on my board, setting up for the comeback performance that will define the rest of the day and the GDX, which appears to be directly related to the stocks appears to be trying to form up what could be viewed as an Adam and Eve pattern. The bottoms for gold and silver look good with the GDX and GDXJ looking a little weak, but not bad. Stocks are down, but not bad at this time. We should know how much strength comes back into play soon. Riding the rough patch. It's just an ugly day IMO. Hope for the best. GL.

AS you said, GDXJ is looking weak and even more weak today. It should be near a bottom now, but with the rebalancing issue, it is hard to say. Yesterday, I wrote weekly $8.50 cash covered puts on AG, obviously a day to early. Today, I added a little AG at $8.24 with the thought of writing weekly $8.50 calls early next week, assuming the puts are exercised.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #17
Nearing what should define the rest of the day gold appears to be holding sustaining performance, silver has been steadily pulling back in value on my board, setting up for the comeback performance that will define the rest of the day and the GDX, which appears to be directly related to the stocks appears to be trying to form up what could be viewed as an Adam and Eve pattern. The bottoms for gold and silver look good with the GDX and GDXJ looking a little weak, but not bad. Stocks are down, but not bad at this time. We should know how much strength comes back into play soon. Riding the rough patch. It's just an ugly day IMO. Hope for the best. GL.

AS you said, GDXJ is looking weak and even more weak today. It should be near a bottom now, but with the rebalancing issue, it is hard to say. Yesterday, I wrote weekly $8.50 cash covered puts on AG, obviously a day to early. Today, I added a little AG at $8.24 with the thought of writing weekly $8.50 calls early next week, assuming the puts are exercised.

With where we are, I'm watching to see if we are likely to hold the bottom. Working into today there has been enough bullish activity to believe the bulls will take over and we go up from here. So far this morning the GDX bottom looks bad for any real bullish activity today, GDXJ, even though rebalancing still appears to be somewhat reliable, but I'm focusing on the GDX in relation to gold and silver for now. Gold and silver's bottom's are weak, but within reason today. I'm seeing some bullish spiking as can be seen in the intraday, but with no bullish follow through to say the bulls are likely taking over. It's not looking real good so far and the best I see at this time is for the bear and bull fight to keep the bottom intact. I would like to see a normal like bottom form up in relation to the B-Bands. That would give me more confidence in the strength of the next up phase. Thanks for some input.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #18
Interesting you reference BB's as I was looking at a six month daily chart of GDXJ with BB's this morning. It seems that the stock price has a history of tracing the lower band on dips for about a week then either builds a horizontal base or moves up decisively. I am thinking we are going to get a moderate price build this time with the rebalance issues. Someone has posted a GDXJ chart on Trading View suggesting we should move up using different parameters. Time will tell.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #19
Interesting you reference BB's as I was looking at a six month daily chart of GDXJ with BB's this morning. It seems that the stock price has a history of tracing the lower band on dips for about a week then either builds a horizontal base or moves up decisively. I am thinking we are going to get a moderate price build this time with the rebalance issues. Someone has posted a GDXJ chart on Trading View suggesting we should move up using different parameters. Time will tell.
I know you like the BB's and have referenced them several times in your posts. It's something I look at from time to time. I find them to fit in well with where I am in charting, providing some greater clarity with timing and TP's. With lots and lots of analysis approaches, it just comes down to how you (we) put the puzzle together. Right now I think the BB's have the lead and will be the best indicator. I'll take a look at the GDXJ chart.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #20
Interesting, my board is showing some nice spike formation developed in the GDX. A solid bullish indication. Gold has some follow up spikes in place and silver appears to be lagging. The first real sign of any bullish activity today. We'll see where it goes from here. The GDX action could mean improving conditions in the stocks themselves.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #21
Seeing the bullish action in the GDX is nice since visiting the 17.55 line, but it obviously is not free and clear. I see very little room for error in the charts.


Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #22
Looks like we've got some quality spiking in gold going into the open.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #23
A pending change in the miners condition? I'm seeing spiking and sustaining behavior in Silver along with GDX and GDXJ which appear to me to be more closely related to stock behavior. Gold is hanging tough with JPY being the weakest of the four. There should be a draw-down from here. It's hard to say how deep the pull-down will go, but I'd say it is likely to be fairly shallow in nature. The buy-in will be important and will hopefully generate some quality spikes and then we are likely to go up from there. We'll see.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #24
A pending change in the miners condition? I'm seeing spiking and sustaining behavior in Silver along with GDX and GDXJ which appear to me to be more closely related to stock behavior. Gold is hanging tough with JPY being the weakest of the four. There should be a draw-down from here. It's hard to say how deep the pull-down will go, but I'd say it is likely to be fairly shallow in nature. The buy-in will be important and will hopefully generate some quality spikes and then we are likely to go up from there. We'll see.
Well, it tried but no follow through on what looked like a nice setup. Back to where we were, hope for the best.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #25
If La-Pen wins the euro will crash, the dollar rise and the metals move upward. Instability will drive the markets as a safe haven from incompetent government policies. The whole landscape will begin to change.

By the way, Heard Chase is buying silver by the boatload.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #26
Everything is looking pretty even right across the board. Silver is way outside its large arc pattern and is clearly inside a new, smaller arc with a downside potential of somewhere around 16.85 as I'm seeing it right now. Gold isn't finished yet and I think what plays out will rely heavily on gold. If gold gives out, then silver could fall hard. I'm not betting on that to happen though. A really tough situation, day by day.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #27
Some thoughts and outlook possibility for silver. The other thought that came to mind as I was wrapping this up is the possibility that silver turns and then does what it did from June to July of 2016.... goes ballistic. My reasoning is this, what I see coming up is that the yen will eventually get its turn. If not fast, then slow. There is usually about a two month period of volatility to work through before things really start taking off assuming there is no outside influence to push it up faster, so, in that event it looks like the yen could/will fire up around June. The original arc established for silver coincidentally comes to an end in June. If one would want to achieve a goal before the deadline then they would have to move fast. Food for thought.


Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #28
The only one strongly spiking on my board at open was the GDX. Interesting how it formed up with the first spikes in at the close yesterday and carrying over into the open this morning.  I'm not sure about that. Its performance looks good and my stock list looks pretty good. I suspect we are looking at a favorable day. I'm looking for validation in the GDX's next pull-down phase.

Re: XAG, XAU, GDX, GDXJ (April)
Reply #29
The only one strongly spiking on my board at open was the GDX. Interesting how it formed up with the first spikes in at the close yesterday and carrying over into the open this morning.  I'm not sure about that. Its performance looks good and my stock list looks pretty good. I suspect we are looking at a favorable day. I'm looking for validation in the GDX's next pull-down phase.
The GDX and GDXJ have formed up properly by my standards, but not real strong. Now it looks like the pull-down phase for gold and silver will be significant. We'll see what happens there. JPY looks like it could be slipping.