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Topic: Missing Data Concerns (Read 432 times) previous topic - next topic

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Missing Data Concerns

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #1


Incremental to your comment in the chart looking at 50/50 either way for a move, GDX and GDXJ both have Bollinger bands that have pinched suggesting a move forthcoming but the indicator does not suggest direction. My GDXJ covered calls that expired last Friday will be re-written today for expiration Friday and I will probably add to PVG holdings. There has been no news from PVG on commissioning the new mine, but if it goes as planned, the wet commissioning should be starting this month with commercial production declared soon after. I would not be surprised to see the stock trade between $15 and $20 on declaration depending on how flowery the announcement is worded. Management has a good track record so success here would not be surprising.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #2
Here's what I think may be in play, resurgence of Energy while Precious Metals is deliberately held down for a time. Likely another month, but unclear at this time.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/04/01/oil-and-gas-stock-roundup-welcome-back-50-oil.aspx

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #3


Incremental to your comment in the chart looking at 50/50 either way for a move, GDX and GDXJ both have Bollinger bands that have pinched suggesting a move forthcoming but the indicator does not suggest direction. My GDXJ covered calls that expired last Friday will be re-written today for expiration Friday and I will probably add to PVG holdings. There has been no news from PVG on commissioning the new mine, but if it goes as planned, the wet commissioning should be starting this month with commercial production declared soon after. I would not be surprised to see the stock trade between $15 and $20 on declaration depending on how flowery the announcement is worded. Management has a good track record so success here would not be surprising.

Deed is done and my holdings of PVG are a little larger.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #4
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #5
This is a quick comment on strategy I have been employing. It is presented to potentially give others an opportunity to evaluate for their use. I have not been using protective straddles on the options because I feel quite confident in the PM market direction, but using straddles would make the strategy less risky, but at a high price.

When I wrote the GDXJ calls last Monday, I wrote 1/3 at $37.00 strike expiring today on shares purchased for $36.50 and 2/3's at $40.00 strike expiring April 21 on shares purchased for $39.82. With the recent Syrian events and today's lower than expected jobs headline number, GDXJ is likely to open with a serious gap up, and probably be filled in short order if it gets filled, as the trend for PM's seems up. I will write weekly $37.00 puts Monday. Using the calling of the 1/3 as a marker, the profit including option premium and 50 cent gain is 7.03% over the course of 3 weeks, not too shabby. Since the 2/3's was purchased at a higher price further back, I have not calculated the returns, but they are on the order of 3/4% per week for the option premium only since purchasing the shares Feb 6. All of the funds go to dollar cost averaging into PM stocks building the share count for the big bounce yet to come.

  • CLARKBAR
  • [*][*][*]
Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #6
Sandybeach knows that the complacent may indeed, be left behind. With the $15 pop in gold today.. I'm witness to shorts piling into crude oil as well as the metals... Just seems like I've seen this movie before.  A Weekend.. profit off the table, a short opportunity and a gap higher Monday morning.. YIKES~! We live in interesting times. I've looked at GORO this morning.. LOW risk.. High Reward purchase. JMHO

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #7
Sandybeach knows that the complacent may indeed, be left behind. With the $15 pop in gold today.. I'm witness to shorts piling into crude oil as well as the metals... Just seems like I've seen this movie before.  A Weekend.. profit off the table, a short opportunity and a gap higher Monday morning.. YIKES~! We live in interesting times. I've looked at GORO this morning.. LOW risk.. High Reward purchase. JMHO

I'm assuming you mean short term traders / day traders? Currently I am working through WFT, "Weatherford" (oil & gas), which at the moment looks like it will try to pop come Monday or Tuesday. I'm looking to get a seed planted and then have my eyes on GFI, "Gold Fields, which is nearing a buy-in point as I see it. Overall, it looks like you are saying expect profit taking resulting from the pop and then away it goes early next week. Optimistically, it is very near the confirmation I want see for the sector. Next week could be a much more "momentum" filled week. Hope so.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #8
This is a quick comment on strategy I have been employing. It is presented to potentially give others an opportunity to evaluate for their use. I have not been using protective straddles on the options because I feel quite confident in the PM market direction, but using straddles would make the strategy less risky, but at a high price.

When I wrote the GDXJ calls last Monday, I wrote 1/3 at $37.00 strike expiring today on shares purchased for $36.50 and 2/3's at $40.00 strike expiring April 21 on shares purchased for $39.82. With the recent Syrian events and today's lower than expected jobs headline number, GDXJ is likely to open with a serious gap up, and probably be filled in short order if it gets filled, as the trend for PM's seems up. I will write weekly $37.00 puts Monday. Using the calling of the 1/3 as a marker, the profit including option premium and 50 cent gain is 7.03% over the course of 3 weeks, not too shabby. Since the 2/3's was purchased at a higher price further back, I have not calculated the returns, but they are on the order of 3/4% per week for the option premium only since purchasing the shares Feb 6. All of the funds go to dollar cost averaging into PM stocks building the share count for the big bounce yet to come.

The give back this afternoon is nothing short of amazing. In the CDE thread, Ed posted "I BELIEVE THAT THE NEWS IS THE EXCUSE TO LET GOLD AND SILVER GO HIGHER, NIOT THE REASON THEY DID, THEY WERE ON THEIR way up, we saw this,
Manipulation at it's finest. ". I think he is onto what is and is not happening. Apparently, there is a timeframe on the excuse and it has run its course. I just might be holding all my GDXJ over the weekend thinking about writing calls and not puts! Either way, it adds to the share count.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #9
Why manipulation? I don't buy it..anyone whip bought gold/silver or miners this am does not know how to traders...and traders who did not take profits...ditto.
I have only LT positions at the moment but I knew this wold come back down...no manipulation at all.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #10
Why manipulation? I don't buy it..anyone whip bought gold/silver or miners this am does not know how to traders...and traders who did not take profits...ditto.
I have only LT positions at the moment but I knew this wold come back down...no manipulation at all.

I see short term trading as heavily manipulated and long term trading not nearly as much, hence the advantage of LT trading versus ST trading. Up $15.00 in line with the police action against Syria, down $16.00 right now and looking at what happens next. Manipulation in LT and ST?  Oh yeah! IMO, but it's anybody's guess and we are left to deal with it, that's all.

I'm working on getting that LT trading built up for myself to provide additional gains (maybe) and to act as a hedge against mistakes and focusing on jumping in long enough to lay down a seed and then let it go from there as long as conditions remain favorable.

You are very skilled Nikko and should be considering the history you've shared. Thanks.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #11
Why manipulation? I don't buy it..anyone whip bought gold/silver or miners this am does not know how to traders...and traders who did not take profits...ditto.
I have only LT positions at the moment but I knew this wold come back down...no manipulation at all.

I consider the control of interest rates as manipulation of interest rates, the goal of stable prices redefined as 2% inflation and 98.5 plus minus depreciation of the dollar by the fed's keeping it stable manipulation. I consider someone or ones dumping a whole years worth of paper metal on the market during thin trading hours, or restated, selling in a manner to obtain the minimum price possible as very strong suggestion of manipulation. I consider DB admitting to influencing PM prices manipulation. Gold and federal debt correlated near perfectly for a very long time then about three or four years ago it decoupled big time suggesting gold being depressed.  While it has not been proven in a court. It had been "investigated" for years by the SEC and found not to exist, but the SEC doing an investigation to find that they have failed in their mission to be like the fox guarding the hen house. I find the evidence overly compelling the dollar is managed (manipulated for someone's benefit) and since gold is priced in dollars, by extension it is manipulated. Just my opinion.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #12

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #13
sandy...in my post I wrote that all markets are manipulated to some extent.
When I was in investment banking you should have seen the crap we pulled in financings and IPO's...criminal 100%...I was a trader and sales trader so was not my decision, but saw it first hand. EVERYTHING is manipulated in the markets to some extent but the key for us is to make money not being insiders.
Constantly screaming manipulation does no good..its whining IMO.
I have no intention of selling my services even though a lot of people I know say I should..
I have only bought 1 payed subscription...GANN Global Financial as it came highly recommended...the guy has lots of historical data which I do not have...But he blew it as his stops were filled at the lows this year...I actually bought hose lows against his advice.
Its all a guessing game in a way and technicals do help...but keep in mind that lots of sheep follow technicals so u will never become rich following them.
I will sell 3/4 of my miners somewhere from here to Aug as bought a house which closes Sept 1...I simply decided that I need to take that money out ( all profit ) and pay cash for the house.
When you have real profits, its important to book them and BUY something concrete...while u can win big in stock markets, anything can happen and u can lose it all.
We likely all think that a black swan even will tear the market to shreds at some point...Can we be certain that gold will be up in this environment with miners...NO. it can be like 2008 all over again. who knows. GL all.

Re: Missing Data Concerns
Reply #14
Sorry Nikko, I must have misinterpreted your post as I can buy into everything in your recent post except I did not buy any subscription services. I did buy a home in October 2013 for cash and I am totally debt free except for monthly credit card balances that are cleared every month. One more difference is no one ever suggested I sell my services, but several have encouraged me to write a book. I will be paring my holdings, but I am thinking it will be into the following year before I start unless there is a fundamental changing my view of the long term.

I appreciate your views on the market and economy and probably other stuff as well should you pontificate. Thanks for posting on this forum.