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Topic: DXY (Read 1153 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: DXY
Reply #45
Good shot term call on DXY in reply 44 as it is approaching 94 this morning. It could swing wildly with the jobs report @ 0830 and the influence the hurricane damage may have on the numbers in addition to the normal. Looking at the chart below shows a lot of long term damage done with a steeply down sloping 200 day MA and the 50 day MA below it only levelling. However, MACD histogram (not shown due to TV limits) is very positive and the value is chasing the upper BB curve, characteristics that would be encouraging if evaluating a stock to buy. I do not think the dollar can be diagnosed back into bull market until we see the positive golden cross, requiring about 5 units of closure which a while own the road.



Re: DXY
Reply #46

DXY may be signaling an unexpected by me, short to midterm deviation from the major swoon taken since the first of the year. Over the last couple months, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has been painted. If the value gets above the horizontal resistance line, it could be in for a solid move up possibly to the potential target zone identified by the last significant trading range. A personal caution, I do not hold a lot of confidence in HnS trading patterns, but it is there. BB's are positive as well with the midpoint trending up.
Countering the potential move up is MACD suggesting upward momentum is petering out but not totally dissipated. Fundamentally, a strong dollar is just what we need to bolster the wealth of the middle class and all individuals storing their wealth in dollar denominated assets, but that is not how the elite see the picture. They want liquidity even if they have to print it. The new dollars have no wealth other than what is stolen from existing dollar holders. The elite want inflation. For some perverted reason they think it is better for consumers to buy at higher rather than lower prices, but consumers are fighting that looking for sales, using coupons, and ordering from Amazon. Consumers must be crazy wanting the most for their dollar; NOT! Bottom line, counter a potential move up is the interests of the country's elite. They will likely get their way, and that is PM positive.





  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DXY
Reply #47
ugh, hope this doesn't play out.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: DXY
Reply #48
US debt has soured since the one day 300 billion debt increase last September, and with it the US stock market. The chart from the article does not seem to paste into this post, but debt on October 25, 2017 is $20.439 trillion and on September 7, 2017 is $19.844 trillion, or $595 billion increase. Over the same period, the down goes up 1670 points. The thing about debt is that it is spent very soon after incurred, and the spend contributes to GDP directly, but the incurred debt does not diminish. The other problem with the government increasing its spend is government spend is nearly 100% consumption, consuming the wealth of the nation. Not having that wealth invested in profitable ventures to grow the economy long term is a huge undermining of the economy's ability to grow.
Just for grins, consider that $600 billion in a $20 trillion GDP economy is 3%. The growth in our economy is not real growth, it is borrowed from the future and credited in current market statistics. This is not sustainable

The article also has a section on the similarities before the 1987 crash and now that is an interesting read

Link to full article:

https://srsroccoreport.com/significant-developments-in-the-precious-metals-market-where-we-go-from-here/



  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #49
Quote
The growth in our economy is not real growth, it is borrowed from the future and credited in current market statistics. This is not sustainable

So true. The first QE of 1 trillion raised the GDP 1 point. Then they did 2 and 3 and the effect was even less. Dumb bastards in the Fed don't know crap about economics. Because of this the only hope you can have in the USA economy is despair until the great reset and even then you ain't going to like it. Especially those of us who have kids.

Re: DXY
Reply #50
Dollar is taking a hit today and PM's response is muted but oil is up as would be expected. Slow and short trading session today. I rolled out my NUGT options for a nice profit. and Radiant is doing well on Canadian regulatory news. Hope every one had a great Thanksgiving.





  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DXY
Reply #51
i think HnS is a reversal pattern, not a continuation. I drew it anyway
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DXY
Reply #52
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: DXY
Reply #53
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: DXY
Reply #54
Dollar getting smacked today which probably accounts for the bulk of the PM space appreciation


Re: DXY
Reply #55
Image did not come through, one more try and the link is also included

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DX


  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #56
Dollar getting smacked today which probably accounts for the bulk of the PM space appreciation


Dollar Tumbles After Mnuchin Endorses Weaker Currency, Ross Speaks Of Trade Wars
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/dollar-tumbles-after-mnuchin-endorses-weaker-currency-ross-speaks-trade-wars

Re: DXY
Reply #57
Dollar getting smacked today which probably accounts for the bulk of the PM space appreciation


Dollar Tumbles After Mnuchin Endorses Weaker Currency, Ross Speaks Of Trade Wars
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/dollar-tumbles-after-mnuchin-endorses-weaker-currency-ross-speaks-trade-wars

I just saw that statement on Fox Business website; what a misguided comment by a supposedly wise man. A very basic concept, apparently not taught any more, is that the dollar as our money is also by definition, supposedly a store of value. The 1% drop in the dollar index today roughly decreases the wealth stored in dollar denominated assets by an equivalent 1%, or stated in other terms, the dollar just lost 1% of its purchasing power. That is wealth transferred from the middle class without their consent.
 Of course the common justification is that dropping the dollar's value increases exports, but never stated is the wealth received for those exports is also diminished and the ability for Americans to purchased imports is also diminished. By stating only part of the story, he comes off as making a wise policy statement, but adding in "The rest of the story", his one good point is destroyed and more reasons for a strong dollar are made evident. Do not count on Business press or the MSM to challenge him, though the MSM, if they wanted to credibility challenge the Trump administration would do just that.

Another link:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/24/mnuchin-welcomes-weaker-dollar-as-u-s-makes-davos-investment-push.html

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #58
Dollar getting smacked today which probably accounts for the bulk of the PM space appreciation


Dollar Tumbles After Mnuchin Endorses Weaker Currency, Ross Speaks Of Trade Wars
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/dollar-tumbles-after-mnuchin-endorses-weaker-currency-ross-speaks-trade-wars

I just saw that statement on Fox Business website; what a misguided comment by a supposedly wise man. A very basic concept, apparently not taught any more, is that the dollar as our money is also by definition, supposedly a store of value. The 1% drop in the dollar index today roughly decreases the wealth stored in dollar denominated assets by an equivalent 1%, or stated in other terms, the dollar just lost 1% of its purchasing power. That is wealth transferred from the middle class without their consent.
 Of course the common justification is that dropping the dollar's value increases exports, but never stated is the wealth received for those exports is also diminished and the ability for Americans to purchased imports is also diminished. By stating only part of the story, he comes off as making a wise policy statement, but adding in "The rest of the story", his one good point is destroyed and more reasons for a strong dollar are made evident. Do not count on Business press or the MSM to challenge him, though the MSM, if they wanted to credibility challenge the Trump administration would do just that.

Another link:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/24/mnuchin-welcomes-weaker-dollar-as-u-s-makes-davos-investment-push.html
I think its a trade off. Weak dollar helps exports. But how much manufacturing do we have? I know there is a increase in manufacturing. To get it cooking hot a drop in the dollar may be what is needed.

I realize that there are pro and cons. Personally I don't think the so called economist know shit from apple butter.

Re: DXY
Reply #59
I am not trying to be argumentative, just looking at some numbers for the first time in a very long time. From the US National debt clock website, total all in government, business and individual debt is $69.4 trillion and foreigners hold $6.4 trillion federal debt or about 30% rounded down. Applying the same ratio to total debt which is probably going to give a very conservative number for total debt held by US citizens and business, gives $48.6 trillion held in country. A 1% drop in dollar's value then would roughly translate to about $500 billion or 2.5 months of exports in lost wealth or purchasing power for Americans, but that does not include the wealth held in dollar denominated assets that are not debt related.

From the same website linked below, manufacturing jobs have gone from 17.272 to 12.552 million from 2000 to now, hardly a good move, but that does not reflect agricultural exports which are probably going up. This not in anyway conclusive, but it does shed a little light on where the bulk of wealth changes occur. I remember well, but cannot find the exact quote where President Reagan said no country ever repaired or built a strong economy by trashing its currency. I tend to think that a wise thought.

www.usdebtclock.org/