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Topic: Train Wreck? (Read 239 times) previous topic - next topic

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Train Wreck?
I Want to start backwards in my investigation.
Usually we would blame something on this on the price of gold.
What is exactly is this? What exactly is so bad?
I think the problem lies in the ETF's and ETN's
Indexing the stocks, then leveraging the index gives the 1% the means to corral the newer, less experienced PM investors into JNUG and NUGT as a easy to play the PM sector, we know there is nothing easy about PM's.
This concentrating of the new money into  what amounts to a bunch of calls on stocks, makes the process of manipulating Joe Public out of the market.
If 28% down in a day, (JNUG) isn't enough to cause fear in an investor, maybe margin call selling will. 
How did the GDXJ go down 10% in a day? where were all the buyers? They already bought, at least all of the average joes that buy into funds.  If you do not believe that the "big boys"  are in control and are trying to get your shares then you aren't going to make it very long in PM miners.
Wall street not main street are the real buyers, if they decide not to buy, then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down until they get as many shares from the fear as possible. Has it come to that point? I do not know.
But I do know that 7%-10% down days in the middle of a bull run is common for silver stocks.
I will use July 20 2016 as an example of what PM bull is like, our history is riddled with days like this, this is just recent, and easy. I am not saying I know this will repeat, just that today was actually very typical.
I will mark all the charts the same day 7-20-16

note JNUG's similar drop to today's about 30%

CDE lost 10% that day

What happened so bad in gold? In this case it was actually the first low in a series of lower lows from the top.
Even though gold had topped, the miners mentioned, still went up 50% or so from there. Note that most of my targets on my charts now are about 50% from here. (EXK comes to mind, SSRI also)
We can't say it was because of silver that those miners went up, Silver was topping too.

My point being this can not be easily explained in a logical manner. the correlations are so bad that you can't base one trade on another. on a daily chart you can't tell a top from a retrace, I go with what i know, start with the fundamentals and go to the long charts then look into the daily swings. I am fully prepared to hold my miners for years, not change my mind every other week.
This chart clearly shows Silver hitting 18.40 on Feb 27ish and then dropping all the way bak to 18ish before attacking 19.
Plan your trade and trade your plan and do not let fear guide you or scare you into thinking you were wrong.
If your plan was to buy and sell trading in and out of the miners, then I hope you do it better than I did back in the days when I tried to.
I learned my lessons, I am holding without risking having to sell due to margin.Although I am margined, I can sell the margin-able stock if it came down to that, it would have to go pretty low for that to happen. My margin is actually been spent on pot stocks, not more miners.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • [*][*]
Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #1
 I was in fear state today  :'(   :'(    :when i saw the drop and couldnt figure what was going on then niko pointed out all miners . i also think the machinces and etfs  >:(   took price way down. I made mistake :o   of trying to catch the falling knife but i just couldn't believe pps versus metal price,  big disccrepancy. I still have a lot of dry powder and am holding. I also trade in and out with the swing but only 5 to 10 k shares daily or weekly dependimg on move, gives a retirery some thing to do  :)) .   I held last time it went all the way down to just over a dollar and was well rewarded for the wait  will do same here. no real reason  exk should have been hit so hard. Like your charts (calmed my current fears thought EXK mine collapsed), and if chart historty repeats should be back up in 1 day or a week. glta and good night

Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #2
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #3
Its not lost money until you sell. Something I learned in all my years. The exception is a stock that is a financial albatross run by a loser CEO/

Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #4

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #5

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: Train Wreck?
Reply #6
An outlook I was looking at last night.