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Topic: I hope this isn't a book. (Read 768 times) previous topic - next topic

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I hope this isn't a book.
While charting, I noticed that there were mixed signals from gold and silver, the silver stocks and GDX, potential problems for gold due to the DXY or dollar index.
So i once again will try to put the pieces together so that they somewhat fit logically together.
The dollar index loos strong, at least strong enough for a "C" wave up, the 2nd up of a 3 wave corrective pattern.  The direction has a tendency to move gold the in the opposite way.
Gold's current pullback didn't look like it had much more to fall based on my leading indicators, silver and their stocks.
The GDX has some nasty gaps, that really look like they could be filled soon.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #1
So this lead me to look at the GSR which I feel is going to brake down. I noticed the ratio has not budged for 5 days. This seemed odd so i went back and circled the times i found that the ratio was tightly range-bound, i noticed that the GSR drops dramatically right after the rege breaks, i marked these in red.
and put the same lines on gold and silver.
I also noticed that gold re-tested the BO of the neckline perfectly as seen as a blue dashed.
I see that gold seems to pop at least a dxy but not necessarily rally after.
Silver shows huge moves on the brake down.
So i think the DXY can rally, gold have a good day to break the ratio.
Gold will consolidate the 1222 to 1250 range and work it's way up tp 1278 by the end of March. I put an ewave count on gold this seems to fit for the ewave guys. Silver does not look like the wave 3 is completed, this made it hard to chart, and where this thread got it's start.
The GDX will also consolidate the low 40's
silver is heading to almost 20$
The silver miners seemed like they were ready for big moves soon. the gold stocks not as much IMO
I believe gold's .382 retrace is enough pullback for now. And 1222 marks the bottom. but the next downside targets are in dashed lines.
HL could under-perform as it could be labeled a "Gold" stock.
meaning the silver stocks could have a huge day soon.
Keep us traders as confused as possible,



You can see how gold has been stair stepping up 1222 was a great retrace. and that gold broke the trend-line again as can be seen here, see the pins of the candles sicking below the TL earlier this year.


It looks like the DXY finished the handle I drew last night, a dip in this would give gold and silver a pop today or Monday with gold down next week while the DXY rallies. Silver can move higher without gold's help.




 
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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #2
I wouldn't bother with this one except I had the top blue line on this already, When I opened the layout gold was sitting on the line.



the original of this should be somewhere here, once again this is how i found it. you can see where the red crayon starts


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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #3


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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #4
This is the whole reason i do silver days like today

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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #5
Friday reenforced everything I was trying to say. I find this encouraging for trying to determine the PA of the next few days or weeks.
I need a writer, I can chart, and describe what i wan't to say, but have a hard time putting it down in words.
One of the biggest issues I have is that i see so many possibilities, each leading to a new set, similar to seeing your opponents chess moves and the results form each. Some are more likely than others so you try to see as many moves ahead for each, especially those that are most likely.
To me a chart is like a road map, and the price some random driver. We are trying to figure out which route the driver will take.
Another issue is the amount of material i have, i have 10 charts with different TF's and views, I see how they all fit together, but can't seem to make it complex enough to convey my message, without literally writing a book. If i make it too simple the reasons for my conclusion do not get get across.
Another is my organizational skills. Having SS helps me but so many of my ideas are correlated I try to keep certain ideas in their proper place but one idea comes up while writing about another. 
If you don't understand anything at all about my chart, just ask, this helps me to find direction for my text. That helps me to find aspects of the chart i did not see. I am forced to make my thoughts logical, sorting them into a presentable form causes me to see some defects that were not apparent, just because of all the possibilities overlapping each other in my head. 
For this, I must thank each and every one of you that visits here.  Just Your presence is enough for me to know that this is all worth my while.  Those that post anything at all are helping me as much as I am them.
Thank You!!

Screw the commentary, here are some charts if you don't know what I am trying to show you will either have to figure it out yourself, or just ask. And if you ask me something and don't get a response, ask again, i sometimes go to answer something and start charting an an hour later have forgotten what i started doing in the first place. Moving away from gold chat will help with this.

I keep posting this and keep moving the arrow.

I am taking over the silver forum on TV, leaving gold behind, it takes up too much of my time for not. I post so much there that could go here if organized, I can go back and retrieve short thoughts on sliver because they don't get buried. like this:
this is the last time the MA's were in the same structure you can see how silver broke the blue and hit the orange, the arrow point to the spot with the same PA as now.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #6
Sideways action, funneling into a big breakout.  Took six months back in 2003 from your red arrow.  Blue line below 19 and blue line above 17 shorter term range??

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #7
Sideways action, funneling into a big breakout.  Took six months back in 2003 from your red arrow.  Blue line below 19 and blue line above 17 shorter term range??
I'm not sure how long that blue line has been there, or why, This silver chart is based almost solely on the PA from 03. This would mean if exactly the same which i doubt bet entertain, would mean 1 week down, retesting the blue 50WMA then break the yellow, not making a higher high stoping at the green just below 20 same as in 03 just below 5$ this is the 1990 April 1 high in the chart i am posting now.
Then a "ABC correction, breaking the red again making almost another low, but not quite as seen in the pink line. I am not sure which of the lines will be the next bottom that is why i left them all on there..
the pink arrow shows the breakout of the range in fall 2017 or about 6 months.
I an beginning to question if the geopolitical situation will cause a breakout in the spring instead of the previously projected top.
darn quick reply i have to make 2 posts.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #8
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #9
Friday reenforced everything I was trying to say. I find this encouraging for trying to determine the PA of the next few days or weeks.
I need a writer, I can chart, and describe what i wan't to say, but have a hard time putting it down in words.
One of the biggest issues I have is that i see so many possibilities, each leading to a new set, similar to seeing your opponents chess moves and the results form each. Some are more likely than others so you try to see as many moves ahead for each, especially those that are most likely.
To me a chart is like a road map, and the price some random driver. We are trying to figure out which route the driver will take.
Another issue is the amount of material i have, i have 10 charts with different TF's and views, I see how they all fit together, but can't seem to make it complex enough to convey my message, without literally writing a book. If i make it too simple the reasons for my conclusion do not get get across.
Another is my organizational skills. Having SS helps me but so many of my ideas are correlated I try to keep certain ideas in their proper place but one idea comes up while writing about another. 
If you don't understand anything at all about my chart, just ask, this helps me to find direction for my text. That helps me to find aspects of the chart i did not see. I am forced to make my thoughts logical, sorting them into a presentable form causes me to see some defects that were not apparent, just because of all the possibilities overlapping each other in my head. 
For this, I must thank each and every one of you that visits here.  Just Your presence is enough for me to know that this is all worth my while.  Those that post anything at all are helping me as much as I am them.
Thank You!!

Screw the commentary, here are some charts if you don't know what I am trying to show you will either have to figure it out yourself, or just ask. And if you ask me something and don't get a response, ask again, i sometimes go to answer something and start charting an an hour later have forgotten what i started doing in the first place. Moving away from gold chat will help with this.

I keep posting this and keep moving the arrow.

I am taking over the silver forum on TV, leaving gold behind, it takes up too much of my time for not. I post so much there that could go here if organized, I can go back and retrieve short thoughts on sliver because they don't get buried. like this:
this is the last time the MA's were in the same structure you can see how silver broke the blue and hit the orange, the arrow point to the spot with the same PA as now.


"I need a writer, I can chart, and describe what i wan't to say, but have a hard time putting it down in words.
One of the biggest issues I have is that i see so many possibilities, each leading to a new set, similar to seeing your opponents chess moves and the results form each. Some are more likely than others so you try to see as many moves ahead for each, especially those that are most likely.
To me a chart is like a road map, and the price some random driver. We are trying to figure out which route the driver will take."


Back up to the thinking "A picture speaks a thousand words." IMO. The thing with charts is that there is so much going on with them that it is extremely easy to get your chart cluttered, leading to more confusion than clarity. I have always focused on simplifying the equation for the sake of greater clarity. When it comes to charts all we are doing is focusing on what a stock is doing right now and in the immediate future. Sure one step leads to another step, but it's moment by moment, phase by phase. I like commentary that is factually based and to the point providing clarity of the chartist's thinking. We all have our own work to do in deciding whether or not a chart has merit and possibility. As for timing, well, that's the trick in play and the most irritating and annoying aspect of trading for me. The proverbial "Time Trap". Time and time again I see stocks run up to their breakout points only to fall back for one, two, three, six month periods. I view this as a more controlled maneuver that big money plays. Wear down the investor, squeeze out the money. There are so many tricks in stock play and another big one is make it look like a pending crash, watch the bail and then pop! What the ????? and then we see posts from outfits like "The Motley Fool" saying "now here's why".... really? I know I'm going off track here so enough said about that. My point is Ed and everyone, don't get hung up about commentary. Simple to the point charts, enhanced with point making comments is the best way to go IMO. Charting isn't everybody's thing nor should it be. We should all add to this site according to our strengths, whatever that may be. Let a thread with charts tell a story, a kind of slideshow, that paints a picture. In the end, it's each person's own decision. No one is responsible for anything and no one can be blamed for anything. IMO. GL always.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #10
With the market one can never know what the hell is going on behind the closed doors of the manipulators. In a way its a crap shoot. The only thing you have to go on is the information available and the laws of probability. Information is found in the charts. Probability has many external factors. Its criminal to say the least.

While I am by no ways any type of expert, I can chart with a degree of accuracy that gives me a confidence to approach the stock choice I am to make. I just stay away from non-pm issues anymore. Those damned penny stocks are a casino no matter how well you can chart. (With exception for RPMGF) got a good feeling..... and that's all. A feeling and nothing more.

Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #11
thanks, that is just what i needed to hear.

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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #12

THIS IS KEY! no chart is as important to me as this for this week.

Silver looks poised to break this bull flag TP $18.30



Copper took off friday trying to break the flag today also


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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #13

My Text from 7AM on TV. "1770 should be the floor 1763 max. I would SL at 1760 and tp 1990 for a tl trade 18.40 ST buy at 1778 if one can get it
1780 may be better the .382 fib on a 15m"
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Re: I hope this isn't a book.
Reply #14
Silver looks strong when compared to gold since the high of 85 last spring. This morning gold is down a bit with silver holding steady, a continuation of the trend. The dow/silver ratio seems to have hit a high with the Christmas PM low last year suggesting silver is doing better than the much heralded stock market after the Trump win. I believe overweight in PM stock with an emphasis on silver focused miners is a good strategy for the mid to long run. Thanks for all the charts ED

I just looked at the TV and saw silver is now down 8 cents, so my comment about today is not quite as correct, but the trend is in tact.