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Topic: Employment Report (Read 160 times) previous topic - next topic

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Employment Report
This month the employment report sounded pretty good on the surface and looking at the headline number, but this morning The bond market had a different reaction. For a good summary of the report, have a look at the link

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231803

Things are not as good as cracked up to be and the likelihood of three more rate hikes is further in question. This is not painting a pleasant picture for the economy, but probably a plus for the PM space.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Employment Report
Reply #1
Things are not as good as cracked up to be and the likelihood of three more rate hikes is further in question. This is not painting a pleasant picture for the economy, but probably a plus for the PM space.

What are the jobs but service? Cheap labor, low pay. That doesn't excite me.

Re: Employment Report
Reply #2
Things are not as good as cracked up to be and the likelihood of three more rate hikes is further in question. This is not painting a pleasant picture for the economy, but probably a plus for the PM space.

What are the jobs but service? Cheap labor, low pay. That doesn't excite me.

There is another aspect to the report that is in line with your comment Ken; that is the jobs in wealth building industries as indicated by mining and logging, construction, and manufacturing categories, have been very weak hovering around the zero mark for years. This suggests the country is not building wealth, rather consuming it. Consuming wealth as a nation, makes us poorer and eventually it will be reflected in our living standard. I think we are seeing that with statistics such as the rapid growth in food stamp use and huge increases in SS disability payments.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Employment Report
Reply #3
Your right of course, and all you have to do is look at Facebook. It produces wealth for it owner. IMHO Facebook is a kin to social porn. It appeals to the lower basic instincts of a human being. Completely useless and why people love it is beyond me. Its garbage.

Re: Employment Report
Reply #4
This coming week there are a couple reports that may influence markets and PM's beyond predicted by TA. Monday is factory orders complimented by productivity and cost on Wednesday, important because they are a health indicators of a wealth generating component of our economy, albeit the data has moved w/o affecting stocks or PM's much. Tuesday is consumer credit, but the response to it is generally counter to what I would expect as increasing credit is seen as good and I see it as destructive as much of the credit is for consumer items consuming the wealth of the nation and credit brings forward economic activity at the expense of future activity. Last, the plethora of employment data commences Wednesday and culminates with the jobs report Friday. Jobless claims have been trending down for a long time, a good sign if the labor force population distribution were not changing, but it is changing. There are many more people considered permanently out of the employment market suggesting these potential workers are not available for layoff or stated another way, people employed tend to have more critical jobs to the functioning of their employer's business. The administration no matter the party affiliation will tend to put lip stick on the pig so the headline lipstick number will be put forth in the most favorable light, however digging below the headline data will likely continue to show weakness. That might take most of Friday if not longer for investors and traders to decipher and be reflected in market response.

Happy trading, next week has the potential to provide some high amplitude swings for the informed and nimble. I am neither (traits I learned the hard and expensive way), so I will continue my long term plodding strategy, believing PM's will do well over time.

Re: Employment Report
Reply #5
ADP jobs report headline number comes in at 298,000, 115,000 above Econday consensus. It is oviously a very strong number and gives the fed ratchet jawing room for raising rates in the meeting next week. It could mean a PM drop before the rise commences and it could mean a short term low or buying opportunity. More to come the rest of the week on the subject, and it is suspected to be very headline positive possibly not so much under the hood.

Re: Employment Report
Reply #6
ADP jobs report headline number comes in at 298,000, 115,000 above Econday consensus. It is oviously a very strong number and gives the fed ratchet jawing room for raising rates in the meeting next week. It could mean a PM drop before the rise commences and it could mean a short term low or buying opportunity. More to come the rest of the week on the subject, and it is suspected to be very headline positive possibly not so much under the hood.

The data below taken from the report itself is very encouraging for the wealth generation for Americans. Goods producing sector has again generated some serious job count this month, very good for generating wealth rather than consuming it. I like it even though it might not be best the PM sector, but it will not stop the long term uptrend in my opinion.

CHANGE BY SECTOR & INDUSTRY



Goods-producing Sector

 106,000


Natural Resources & Mining
 8,000


Construction
 66,000


Manufacturing
 32,000




Re: Employment Report
Reply #7
$15.00 wage is driving business decision with respect to labor in predictable ways, namely moving management focus on reducing labor cost. McDonalds just announced kiosks to replace cashiers and now a brick laying machine!

 
This trend will continue in all fields.

Every industry and every job is about to be transformed.
 
In 2015, Hadrian X was revealed in Australia. This is a brick laying robot that can build a house 4x faster than humans.

It's capable of stacking 1,000 bricks per hour with exact precision.
 
The reality is jobs are vanishing.
 
It's why having multiple streams of income is a must for the new economy.
 
Diversification of income, living within your means, and being a habitual saver are the keys to financial freedom.

The picture did not come through, but here is link to full article:

http://mailchi.mp/futuremoneytrends/if-you-do-what-is-easy-your-life-will-be-hard-h754twhicf-492049?e=3bd0567cc5

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Employment Report
Reply #8
So with automation taking over and jobs going by the wayside, who will buy these houses and with what?

Re: Employment Report
Reply #9
$15.00 wage is driving business decision with respect to labor in predictable ways, namely moving management focus on reducing labor cost.
Common sense is not in great abundance nowadays. I knew the $15.00 wage was suicide when it was proposed, I agreed that minimum wage needed to be raised, but that is a ridiculous move and pure self-termination. Open the door to greater automation. I guess the mechanic/repair trade will boom should it continue on this way. Duh?

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: Employment Report
Reply #10
Being a mechanic is something that can not be replaced by machines. Its my trade, but as it is I refuse to work for slave wages. The field fosters all sorts of abusive characters. I believe this is created by the frustration the work causes. Repair manuals created in China where the language is not clear on the steps to take to resolve issues.

Re: Employment Report
Reply #11
Seems the government might have messed in their mess kit:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-06/bls-caught-fabricating-data