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Topic: Silver H1 2017 (Read 1232 times) previous topic - next topic

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Silver H1 2017
I hope this isn't too hard for me to convey accurately in a simple manner.
Silver is now at the point where a bottom is possible but the bears have a good case.
I wrote my blog comparing H2 2016 to 2002. that has played out pretty close. So I will continue with this thought pattern until it doesn't work any more.
One factor was and is the 50/200 WMA
You can see how they are preparing for a bullish cross on the next chat.
Silver is below the 50 WMA the same as it was where the red arrow points. You can see the top just above $5 and the blue 200WMA just to the left of the arrow. Notice silver was above the 200WMA when it was above $20 in 2016,
This close up shows the break and retest of the 50wma before the final low.
you can also see the next high is just below $5.
This puts silver just below 20$ about  April.
A continuation of this pattern would mean back to $16 mid summer. IF silver is 18$ at the end of summer that will be THE time to sell the house and margin the money. (Just kidding)


Trendlines are tricky the Red is similar to the lower trendline that people are looking for coming up soon in silver. This will be blue in the chart.
The orange I took of off the second low. You can see how the orange wasn't met in 2004 it was the orange that was important.

The blue is the one that is being sought by the bears, I don't think they will get it just yet. I drew 3 green the next one down is $15.30. There is the chance this will be met this week.




 
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #1
I get the feeling silver is going to follow the green area higher, but at a slow and steady pace that does not give a clear bottom signal.
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #2
This is a clear signal, but it is hitting the top of that range exactly right now

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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #3
I don't want to be a downer, but: Heads Up! This is where I see we are, in the same position that we were in early November. I warn along with others not to get to wrapped up in this moment of time. Confirmation for me will come when I see THREE uptrend point's develop that should tick the 44 day average up one tier and considering the long down trend could lead straight into another one month correction before mining really gets fired up. The first few weeks this year are going to be important. Good ventures!

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #4
Thanks for the Heads Up, and no it is not a downer to get honest thought and analysis. I have been writing covered calls using the premiums to buy more PM stocks as in the longer term the PM sector is going to have its day. I agree, mining is going to get fired up, the unknown is exactly when.

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #5
I need my USAPD back, new acct ready, waiting for funds. I have some dry now from JNUG I will try to wait for the bottom of my channel, I hope I'm right on this, if i'm not there will be a big move up. to just under 17


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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #6
* or at least the middle, dashed line. IF it breaks the purple upward, I may reconsider
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #7
Thanks for the Heads Up, and no it is not a downer to get honest thought and analysis. I have been writing covered calls using the premiums to buy more PM stocks as in the longer term the PM sector is going to have its day. I agree, mining is going to get fired up, the unknown is exactly when.
Tuesday this week, I bought GDXJ and wrote covered calls to continue implementing the practice mentioned in the previous post, but this week, the strategy, while not wrong, proved to be less than optimal as the bulk of the potential returns were obtained by the end of the first day. A 4% gain in four days is good, but holding the ETF along so far this week would have been much more profitable. As I was unsure of the direction for GDXJ this week, in another account, I sold cash covered puts for 2% gain in the four days. Again not optimal, but not bad either. I used the proceeds to add to PVG, TAHO, and USAPD, all being very profitable. TAHO pumping out a 2.5% dividend is not so shabby either, big potential gains and a little beer money to boot.

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #8
".... big potential gains and a little beer money to boot." - Remember to savor it!  8) 

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #9
When I drew my channel I didn't have much to go off of. now I see the high I should have used. You can see the new purple has the exact same slope as the pink which now we know was too low.

It is hard to stick with my last thought that it will come to the dashed but I'm sticking to it.
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #10
I didn't think about a wick on an overnight candle. I still think the channel is good
 
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #11
The wick on the candle might represent an unsuccessful attempt to take down silver. The drop occurred at midnight. A big sell offering during thin trading hours suggests the seller is willing to accept a lower price for his asset, something no normal person would want unless circumstances overrode. It is encouraging silver has regained most of the drop. Another reason this could be a market intervention is that a similar pattern is uncharacteristically not painted on the gold, platinum or palladium charts, but the mid morning characteristics are more synchronous. For me, the wick does not pass the smell test.

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #12
I often say overseas does not count.  I am not taking this as a serious signal. It did help adjust my lines.
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Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #13
The overnight  spikes and dips that are being referred to clearly show up on my board as end of phase sell points. I see the last spike to have occurred 8:31 a.m. for gold and 8:38 a.m. for silver. Gold and silver appear to be hitting their heads against yesterdays high value's and trading horizontally. To me this suggests that Gold and silver will start out on a down note. Beginning its descent at 8:30 gives an hour before market open and I would guess about an hour and a half to two hours into the day to get back on track for continued advancement that I see as necessary. Gold should continue upward above its track line and provide some space for the downturn as I see it. I was kind of figuring today will play out as a "What the...????" day and it's  looking to me at the moment that it might just play out that way.IMO & GL.

Re: Silver H1 2017
Reply #14
The pullbacks have been weak, just enough to incite some shorts and scare longs.
I was saing last night to a chat room that I felt 1170 would hold. With NFP out the move lower was weak but not enoiugh to get over 1180. I get the feeling that gold will break out 1200 the same day as the DOW breaks 20000
Trade well
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