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Topic: the paralysis of analysis (Read 72 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • edmund 
  • [*][*][*]
the paralysis of analysis
What was it it the shorts sellers saw  were told that motivated those positions completely at odds with the commercials.
Seasonality does exist as a statistic  with Precious Metals.
Is it interest rate environment.
Coeur is attracting many new smaller funds  along with large Blackrock,Van Eck and is it GMS
Coeur produced significantly lower amounts of gold versus 4th quarter.Silvertip has had major infill drilling and money thrown at it
but little in the way of progress updates.
Palmarejo had a 110 million in free cash flow for 2017 but left a large cash payment due for 2017Taxes that will be paid in first quarter plus a payment towards 2018 that will be made in installments and there will be 9900 ozs gold to Franco at 800.00.This represents 32% of Palmarejo production and the company expects this to be a quarterly approx figure going forward.
Then there was a high grade fault area that needed shoring up this delayed production.
Also if you haven't noticed gold recoveries dropped from 92% to 80% and silver about 8% .This was due to a processing inventory buid up and installation of a ADR plant.Coeur states recoveries will now normalize but grades will be dropping slightly going forward.
.That 110 million was also using Tax Credis on Mexican Tax due.
Interest was up 50% in 4th quarter and will continue due to revolver loan to buy Silvertip Development costs should be minimal at Rochestor this quarter but the was lower gold production compared to 4th quarter due to high grade that had previously been placed on leach.The HPGR PEA will add 20 million to rochestor cap ex when passed by board.The 4th quarter was first free cash flow positive for rochestor with heap leach construction costs.Full year had negative cash flow.
Kensington a major disappointment for me produced 115 million gold ozs and had 1.4 million in free cash flow for year..The water issue has lingered at Kensington and grades are down with still high development costs.
The Kensington Tech report should be fireworks as it is all of 2017 drill results with an abundance of high grade i'll be watching the surface results for extension of vein 4 and down dip.
Kensington only showed depletion at Coeurs year end reserve report.This tech report was supposed to be out in first quarter and has been finished since Easter-are they holding it out to support the earnings report that i believe can have losses greater than the -.04 analysts .
Wharf also will suffer from lower grades all year until stripping complete and higher grade can be mined
But that is my feeling having an approx revenue of 264 million vs 215 million in 4th quarter.Analysts have Coeur revenue at 173mill
Exploration updates and development at Silvertip may reveal much after a curtain on news.
.Has this been discounted i hope so as the market in past has sold off -Its only pennies
 I'm bearish earnings but share price bullish as metals are finally putting some wind in the sails.
Coeurs recent strategics with Corvus have tripled and Northern Empire have doubled- up  about 15 million.
With divestiture of Bolivia and purchase of Silvertip and the inability to re configure Preciosa and the water problem surfacing and lingering at Kensington slowing development -not good for your credibility.
 The dud tech report from Rochestor and new outstanding but unproven PEA report-
Coeur needs that Kensington Tech report and some good news updates from Silvertip at conference call-

ANYBODY ELSE WANT TO WEIGH IN



  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: the paralysis of analysis
Reply #1
I wish I had a 10th of the knowledge you do. It is hard for me to comment on such a complete, well written summery.
The only thing I can really say is Coeur's share price will be determined by the price of silver IF silver continues to advance from here. If silver languishes here in the 16-17 range then we could see issues in share price regardless of the fundamentals of the operations.
The chart looks good, the breakout was retested, Get above this level and 10 is the next target.
Expecting a golden cross of the 50/200DMA's if CDE pulls back to the point of the cross at 8 I would think that would be a great place to enter or add.

Thank you very much for your input.
JMHO
Ed
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: the paralysis of analysis
Reply #2
Northern Empire is a Nevada mining company w/ CDE having an 11% share holding. They have recently come out with positive news and charts show there may be a positive share price movement.



PSAR negative slope is diminishing with the share price consolidating around 90 cents and should switch positive shortly. The 20 day MA is diving  and approaching share price, but share price should cross above soon. STO chart has recently turned bullish. Note the above chart is a Cartesian plot while the lower is a semi log plot.



MACD histogram is crossing bullish and the golden cross occurred last February. It is possible/probable a 10% or 20% up move is near. I hold a small position in the stock and may add to it today

Re: the paralysis of analysis
Reply #3
PSPGF has taken a tumble on fundamentals, just like most other PM stocks, that I believe over run my charts on the post above. I still believe the company will make a move and buying shares under $0.80 is better than spending $0.90 or more. Share price looks like it might have made a short term bottom with RSI turning up and share price starting to deviate above the lower BB. MACD looks poor, but that is many times the case at cyclical low. I am holding a small position expecting positive secular performance from this company with a possible buy out offer made by CDE with share price having been hammered.