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Topic: CDE Analysis (Read 200 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #1
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098760-free-cash-flow-coeur?auth_param=7vf4n:1cp60fs:3d24d048cc42702f46e866ab757e4c4c&uprof=82
The one to ask is Edmund.

It all depends on what gold does. Like the author says, "At $17 silver and $1200 gold, the cash flows will be negligible, but at, say, $20 silver and $1300 gold, its adjusted free cash flow could easily increase by a four-digit percentage."

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #2
Here is a chart. MACD sucks but should come up.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #3
Best guess on CDE outlook.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #4
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098760-free-cash-flow-coeur?auth_param=7vf4n:1cp60fs:3d24d048cc42702f46e866ab757e4c4c&uprof=82
The one to ask is Edmund.

It all depends on what gold does. Like the author says, "At $17 silver and $1200 gold, the cash flows will be negligible, but at, say, $20 silver and $1300 gold, its adjusted free cash flow could easily increase by a four-digit percentage."


Based on CDE's production and CAS forecasts and current gold and silver prices, I estimate EBITDA at + - 140M for 2017.
This justifies + - the current course by comparison.
With gold at 1400 and silver at 19, the EBITDA would be a little less than 200M.
Your feedback?
Some reported improvements to come, but quantified evaluations would be desirable.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #5
Next year CDE will look much better. This year its a dog and I plan to unload it in the near future.
Check out KL Kirkland Lake Gold.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099433-kirkland-lake-gold-upside-sustain-robust-production-cash-flows

  • edmund
  • [*][*][*]
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #6
There wereseveral areas that hurt coeurs Free cash flow-the ground condition forced coeur to mine lower grade most of quarter at indepencia  that condition rectified and indepencia production up and back at grade.Not only lost production but royalty free componant. then there were remediation costs.
Also kensington that exspenced development only to have paste backfilll issues and had to mine lower grades. They now are back to 2 higher grade areas at kensington main and one at raven.produce at grade
At rochestor there were pre stripping costs extra trucks,diesel plus cyanide to make up levels from earlier torrential rain-so the got higher grade gold that leaches quickly that will power rochestor for 2nd half
 At Wharf'got back to remaining high grade at Golden Reward along with process enhancements and larger trucks.Coeur raised quidance here.
Preciosa drilling complete
No further NSR to RPM saves 1.1 million a quarter
no further costs or accounting for joaquin,and Coeur Capital sold to metalla
First full quarter lower interest payments with no further cash redemption  costs or accrued interest which was paid early last quarter
interest on bonds paid bi annually
use of NOL's good
 at three US mines
capital leases for gensets at kensington and underground equipment guadalupe 2nd quarter
these are highest grade,largest production months and lowest costs
All in all to have restored balance sheet completed two of three expansion on time on budget with third complete in 4th quarter along with two acquisitions  and to have bonds lowered to 5.875% and extended 3 years with 250mill in cash
To produce 80% more gold at palmarejo-120,000ozs a percentage royalty free
To raise guidance at Wharf to 90/95,000
To produce at grade the balance of kensingtons 120,000ozs guidance
I think there is a case for increased gold at lower costs for balance of year-
Without the issues coeur had just at kensington and indepencia-- coeur would have been profitable 2nd quarter


  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #8
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157457-coeur-mining-exceptional-2017-results-2018-cost-guidance-concern?auth_param=7vf4n:1daumvb:06c9173e855111389853b464f697df92&uprof=82

CDE is always a surprise. What is needed here is a extended time where the metals are up. This raises profit which is the bottom line in any stock. Right now I would hold off unless the chart shows a up-tick is imminent. Buy for a day or two and then sell.