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Topic: DXY (Read 482 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • CLARKBAR
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Re: DXY
Reply #15
I do believe SandyBeach is correct.. "SOMETHING WICKED, THIS WAY.. COMES~!"The Complacent are always ambushed by the predator".. in this case.. banks both Central and Conglomerate.

Re: DXY
Reply #16
Nothing has really changed with the dollar, the chart is awful, no doubt about it. Now it is in oversold territory so a small dead cat bounce might be anticipated but with this momentum, not guaranteed. What is really bad is this chart compares the USD to six I think other currencies that fundamentally are in no materially better shape. That means we are measuring contracting value of the dollar using currencies contracting in value. Taking that into consideration the dollar is tanking much more than painted on the chart. It is very bullish for PM's, particularly in dollar terms. This also points to the foolishness of measuring value with dollars. Let's see, wasn't a function of money to be a store of value?


  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #17

Re: DXY
Reply #18
Best Day For The Dollar Since January: Here's Why

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-04/best-day-dollar-january-heres-why
And in two days it will be all doom and gloom! Buy Gold! I view almost all news as BS and I pretty much keep it in the dung pile with my left eye on it.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #19
Best Day For The Dollar Since January: Here's Why

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-04/best-day-dollar-january-heres-why
And in two days it will be all doom and gloom! Buy Gold! I view almost all news as BS and I pretty much keep it in the dung pile with my left eye on it.
I know! Its crazy. Actually its pissing me of.

Re: DXY
Reply #20
Best Day For The Dollar Since January: Here's Why

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-04/best-day-dollar-january-heres-why

That is a humorous article giving th markets confidence in tax reform, a goal that was to be accomplished by summer will be done by the end of the year This congress could only muster a few confirmations and a fake Russia investigation coupled with Russian sanctions that are more symbolic than substative. These guys could not name a post office with that track record. You have to give the article credit though, there are two distint bumps coincident with respective announcement timings. Technically the dollar was due for a dead cat bounce but I do not think today change the outlook. I will look at it over the weekend, but I am quite sure I can cut and paste an earlier post with an updated chart.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #21
Anything we read you can't take to seriously. Everyone in a position to put articles up on the Internet has the ability to inject their bias into the facts. The dollar is influenced by the world economy and trade, and confidence, etc  ad naseum....... Then their are the banks....

Get the noose!

Re: DXY
Reply #22
I do not see a change in direction for the dollar as measured by DXY at this point. It has not broken the parabolic arc even in the very steep down slope. Going back quite a ways, it is testing horizontal support resistance, still on the underside by a smidgeon. Looking at a hundred day linear regression, the dollar could move up to some value just below 95 and still be in the down trend. RSI and MACD got a little better on the bounce, but are showing signs of trailing off again with this evening's trade. The sinking dollar is good for exports if you consider getting paid the same amount of wealth for greater amount of exports (I do not) and bad for imports. This is one of those occasions when substituting wealth for money forces truth into the statements. Remember this index is a measure against other fiat currencies also losing value, so the dollar deterioration is worse than portrayed.

This is still a very ugly situation as the economy is not getting better. Yes, the employment report was good, but compared to what? Over this last recovery, we have been duped to believe what was mediocre a decade ago is now good. Car sales were really down, real estate is not doing so well and the country continues break even or lag in wealth generating sectors of agriculture, mining, manufacture, and construction. Any growth is primarily in wealth consuming sectors, and it is wealth, not money re-invested in the economy that grows the economy. Government spending for example is nearly 100% consumption; that is why growing government is not going to grow the economy, again consumption consumes wealth. Enlarging debt brings forward economic activity at the expense of future activity. We have brought forward a lot of activity with huge debt increases, both private and public. The public debt increase incurs a double whammy as it is all consumption whereas private debt has a portion go to wealth generating investment.

When all these issues get digested by enough people the economy is going to contract and the Federal Reserve and federal government are going to do what they always do, try to fix the debt problem with more debt. It is insane, but the only way to keep the US government solvent is to reduce the wealth represented by the debt by devaluing the dollar. This is done by increasing the supply of dollars which can be done without immediate restraint as the dollar is no longer backed by gold. Mid to longer term there is a restraint, that being the debt markets want to be compensated for the potential loss of wealth represented by their sinking dollar denominated bonds, thus they demand  higher interest rates. But the government can't afford the interest they need to pay at this juncture, let alone higher rates, so the Federal Reserve Solves that problem by buying the excess debt the government can't sell. What could go wrong? The same agency that prints money buys the excess bonds. And we have politicians and citizens that think that works just fine. In this situation, the dollar tanks going into the dust bin of failed currencies.

The above diatribe is to explain as simply as I can the fundamental reason combined with the TA to explain why I believe the dollar might have a short term dead cat bounce, but mid to long term it is toast. Looking at the attached chart, December 2016 may have been the peak for a very long time. I hope like the dickens I am wrong. If correct, wealth retaining assets are the best holdings and if I am wrong, they are not bad holdings.





  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #23
Quote
....but mid to long term it is toast.
Quote

Perfect post. Right on the money.

Now look at what the mayor of Chicago is doing with the sanctuary city lawsuit. The state is beyond broke and they are protecting those who help drain the treasury. The pension system is going to default. The end can't be far off.

Meanwhile Trump is saying that everything is beautiful and great. What's wrong with this picture? The reality is we are f**cked as a nation as war both internally and externally is looming.

Some years ago I was explaining to a co-worker that this nation is heading towards a civil war, revolutionary war and world war all at the same time. We will not survive as a country.

Re: DXY
Reply #24
 We will not survive as a country.

I am not that pessimistic yet. This country was in dire states at its founding, during the civil war, ww I and II, and great depression and we pulled through. We can again, but we need to revert back to original interpretation of the constitution as our ruling law, protect our borders ruthlessly, and jettison all the government business ventures, like insurance to include FICA funded programs, reduce social safety nets to just that and not have the programs so lucrative that they become a disincentive to work, and enforce the laws. Sanctuary anything to do with obeying the law is flat out wrong and those practicing such policy need to be prosecuted for harboring and aiding criminals. If SS were private, the fiduciary would be bound by the terms of the contract, there would be no benefits reductions or premium increases to make it solvent after the fact. There are about 7 executive branch functions that need to be discarded in favor of states picking up the slack. The reason for this is it gets the service provider closer to the service funder thus generating an accountable relationship. The whole fundamental basis for my arguments is reinvested wealth, not fiat money, in profitable wealth generating ventures is what builds the economy and government spend is nearly 100% consumption , or wealth consuming and it is almost always a misallocation of resources.  I could go on a long time.

The dollar index closed out the week at 92.98 per finviz and not reflected on the trading view chart yet, but that is a pretty good week for the green back given the performance this year. You can look at the chart and see that it is rolling over again and probably will not test any indicators to the upside beyond a few hours in duration. I am still a bear.

Re: DXY
Reply #25
This week the fed with count drahgi as a guest meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There is no telling the loonesy that will come about there is no telling how they will impact the dollar and PM's, but for sure they have the influence to surprise investors and therefore invaladate TA. For now the dollar looks to be resuming its downtrend, potentially a secular downtrend from the recent highs just over 100

Re: DXY
Reply #26
That could very well be; positive or negative. It's a ride for sure, however what we are watching for at the moment will be over by Tuesday from my observations. The anticipation of the event in Wyoming on Friday could have a dampening effect on the pop, should that be the case, or it
This week the fed with count drahgi as a guest meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There is no telling the loonesy that will come about there is no telling how they will impact the dollar and PM's, but for sure they have the influence to surprise investors and therefore invaladate TA. For now the dollar looks to be resuming its downtrend, potentially a secular downtrend from the recent highs just over 100
That could very well be; positive or negative. It's a ride for sure, however what we are watching for at the moment will be over by Tuesday - Wednesday from my observations. The anticipation of the event in Wyoming on Friday could have a dampening effect on any pop or it a pop may come as a complete surprise. There's little to go on at the moment and pretty much 50/50. The Friday event would add a few more days to my TA. It comes down to, does it follow the chart or the event. Gotta love those variables, everyone's on hold for another week, but there is still that chance. GL.

  • ken
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  • Global Moderator
Re: DXY
Reply #27
With Drahgi, the suggestion will be print money.

Re: DXY
Reply #28
Yellen's speech content became available around 10:00 and the dollar promptly tanked with PM's getting a modest bump. They must be happy, destroying the wealth of dollar denominated assets is a sure way to destroying the economy long term in favor of a perceived but nor real short term bounce. I tried to find President Reagan's quote about how no nation became an economic power by trashing its currency but thus far no success. I do see any potential news from the Jackson Hole meeting holding back advances in PM pricing as mostly behind us. With gold at the multiple top around $1295 and no fundamental brakes, it should move up violating that technical indicator, sans manipulation of course.

  • edthelorax
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  • Administrator
Re: DXY
Reply #29

looks like a bull flag with a TP of 1.25
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