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Topic: Where to now? (Read 339 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Where to now?
Reply #15
Silver is looking good. The recent downtrend line and double top at about $16.90 have been violated to the upside, MACD looks very good with room to run, and RSI the same. For the companies like HL and AG that have had labor issues, they may turn out to be a blessing as the mines will start up again with potentially higher product prices.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #16
Have you looked at the option chain to your mining companies lately?

Re: Where to now?
Reply #17
Have you looked at the option chain to your mining companies lately?

Yes, but have not made any decisions. I wrote GDXJ $33 calls that were called this weekend and have the funds to deploy. I am thinking of weekly AG $6.50 puts as AG should get a pop when they announce their labor issues resolved making them pretty safe. AG traded up 10 cents in after hours Friday so they may not be too lucrative. Another consideration is writing weekly GDXJ $33.5. If gold was a slam dunk up, I might consider NUGT puts, but not as long as gold is at the top of the current channel and not having busted through the double top. I have written Sept. covered calls on half my PVG position and Sept. calls on all my IAG position, and I have one $33.50 NUGT (underlying cost $32.50) covered call I am playing with just for fun. If the NUGT call is exercised, I will make 5% in two weeks, if not, about 2% plus influence of the underlying change in price.

Do you have any thoughts? I will say I got really burned buying AG right before earnings (I spaced that out or would never have done it), selling calls. I have a lot of AG in that account for about $8.20 net so the practice is not w/o risk. Not to worry, it will come back.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #18
I got back AG for 6.49. I feel in short order the price will recover soon. Also have CDE at 7.78
Two dogs but they will recover. I wish I would have bought Klondike. It had a nice pop. Waited to long.

I can see gold going through the resistance. Way to much shit rattling going on.

Re: Where to now?
Reply #19
"I can see gold going through the resistance."

I can too, but here is a credible article on COT and bank participation rate that suggests the opposite may occur:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8494/same-it-ever-was

I want to see a couple more TA signals violated before going all in to hopefully squelch some of the manipulation with gold old fashion honest price determination. We do not have that yet.

Re: Where to now?
Reply #20
Have you looked at the option chain to your mining companies lately?

Yes, but have not made any decisions. I wrote GDXJ $33 calls that were called this weekend and have the funds to deploy. I am thinking of weekly AG $6.50 puts as AG should get a pop when they announce their labor issues resolved making them pretty safe. AG traded up 10 cents in after hours Friday so they may not be too lucrative. Another consideration is writing weekly GDXJ $33.5. If gold was a slam dunk up, I might consider NUGT puts, but not as long as gold is at the top of the current channel and not having busted through the double top. I have written Sept. covered calls on half my PVG position and Sept. calls on all my IAG position, and I have one $33.50 NUGT (underlying cost $32.50) covered call I am playing with just for fun. If the NUGT call is exercised, I will make 5% in two weeks, if not, about 2% plus influence of the underlying change in price.

Do you have any thoughts? I will say I got really burned buying AG right before earnings (I spaced that out or would never have done it), selling calls. I have a lot of AG in that account for about $8.20 net so the practice is not w/o risk. Not to worry, it will come back.

I stayed with GDXJ as the underlying, selling Weekly $33 puts for 40 cents. One reason for staying with GDXJ was there is premium even if the underlying price moves quite a bit against me.

Re: Where to now?
Reply #21
Silver seems to be at an interesting juncture. I think an absolute floor is the shoulders at about $16.15 but doubt we get there. MACD still looks good although showing signs of deterioration. Staying above $16.60 is key in cyclical terms, but the secular bull is firmly in place. AG, and HL should do well following resolution of their labor issues and all the primary silver miners have this wind at their back. As long as an investor is not leveraged with margin or long options, he should do well longer term.


Re: Where to now?
Reply #22
Considering where we are this morning I could see a very strong switch-play today. Something to keep in mind and watch for.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #23
Considering where we are this morning I could see a very strong switch-play today. Something to keep in mind and watch for.
I hope so. It would nice to see the beginning of the season to start.

Re: Where to now?
Reply #24
Considering where we are this morning I could see a very strong switch-play today. Something to keep in mind and watch for.
I hope so. It would nice to see the beginning of the season to start.
Yep. We'll see... it could still be another day or two andnthe worse case scenario is the yen stomps out gold and silver. GL.

Re: Where to now?
Reply #25
Considering where we are this morning I could see a very strong switch-play today. Something to keep in mind and watch for.
I hope so. It would nice to see the beginning of the season to start.
Yep. We'll see... it could still be another day or two andnthe worse case scenario is the yen stomps out gold and silver. GL.

An interesting way to play the possible switch you mention is WPM. The pre-market share price is slightly below very strong horizontal support @ about $18.67 and the bull flag by any of the top line interpretations is near resolution point. They announced good earnings and a change in dividend policy to 30% of free cash flow upping the dividend to 10 cents going ex-dividend end August 23. It is a strong company that will do very well in the future, but will not be among the strongest of gainers. It does have the tax litigation issue that I did not see mentioned in the news release. Another note of interest is they have a lot of silver and gold in delivery not yet received that might get sold for a higher price.


  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #26
I'm not buying anything at this point.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #27
If the usdjpy continues to drop thru the day we should have a nice lower leg

Re: Where to now?
Reply #28
I'm not buying anything at this point.

I did, I closed my 1 $33.50 NUGT weekly call for 15 cents for a $77.00 gain over 5 days. I can't help but laugh at that!

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: Where to now?
Reply #29
I may buy some DUST if the dollar continues to rise at some point.