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Topic: 2021 Silver (Read 2269 times) previous topic - next topic
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2021 Silver

We read more and more publication in the direction of a sharp rise in the price of silver to reach 35 or even 50 $ in 2021.
Some also argue that the price of "physical" is currently $ 32, a premium of 25%.
Examples:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394587-silver-chartbook-silver-permabull
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-12-24/Silver-price-to-shine-the-brightest-in-2021-gold-is-third-most-popular-asset.html
What do you think ?
Me, I tend to be wary when the feeling becomes uniformly very positive!

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #1

What do you think ?
Me, I tend to be wary when the feeling becomes uniformly very positive!
I am always cautious when metals are promoted. Trust none of these people.
With that said, I look at confidence in government. That is where the currency can and does take a hit. Sure we can chart, but all that can be manipulated by the criminal banksters.

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #2
I think silver will be stimulated

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #3
Fundamentally, I think the whole sector has been under appreciated for quite a while, even intentionally suppressed as a rising PM price would be tell tale to the shenanigans of the fed. For now, silver looks like it has ignition and lifted off the launch pad December 1. MACD, RSI, and BB's are looking good as are many other indicators not shown on the chart below. Getting above horizontal resistance at $26.50 is key in my mind. Only holdup is 50 day MA getting above 100 day MA (not shown but it is only a matter of days)




 

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #4
Fundamentally, I think the whole sector has been under appreciated for quite a while, even intentionally suppressed as a rising PM price would be tell tale to the shenanigans of the fed. For now, silver looks like it has ignition and lifted off the launch pad December 1. MACD, RSI, and BB's are looking good as are many other indicators not shown on the chart below. Getting above horizontal resistance at $26.50 is key in my mind. Only holdup is 50 day MA getting above 100 day MA (not shown but it is only a matter of days)
With the 4th of January coming, who knows...

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #5
...and silver?

Pretty much the same but the MA's are much more separated to the plus side. Late last week I bought some SILJ January 2023 LEAPs that are really responding this morning.



Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #6
Price of silver the last time Dems had full control of congress and White House. may not be realistic comparison of coming performance as the time frame was immediately following the great recession commencement, but then government has the Wuhan flu excuse to throw accountability to the wind currently.



Chart taken from:

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/extreme-charts-january-8/

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #7
Here are a few of my thoughts on silver.  First the decline last Friday I believe was an intentional middle of the night big bank and Federal Reserve price management operation. I believe they need to manage the price to keep or at least attempt the citizens having faith in the dollar. A dollar crash would be extremely destructive to the economy's workings: PM's increasing and dollar falling are coming, they are just delaying the inevitable.

Since the August high, silver has painted two distinct bear flags and possibly another between the two. Following the first, price appreciation seemed to respect an up sloping trend line parallel to the flag slope. I do not know if that is as important as it is interesting. The STO trace is putting in a base and MACD looks like it may start trending more favorable, but RSI has a little more downside if it is to tag the slight up trend support.



Up trending 20, 50, nd 200 day MA's are all bull aligned since 22 December, quite positive for the long term. Also positive is volume trended up while price was appreciating and declined on the decrease, maybe the metal is getting into stronger hands. BB's are pinching and probably have a way to go before a turn up in price. Bottom line, I see a move up, just not a high amplitude move up without an outside announcement from the private sector, fed, or government, possibly by way of an economic data shock. I also do not rule out another market management operation, but the managers all to well know if they over do it, the spring back reaction could end up being more than they can manage.


Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #8

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #9
Here is a little different look at silver. We went several months in a channel before BO to the upside last half of last year. During the same time frame, silver might be repeating the pattern. I am tepid about this lasting for the same period because we have good longer term TA in place and the unfunded spending, some continuing and some new, planned by the current administration is a tail wind for PM's.


Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #10
Extended hours trading this morning is crazy up for any issue with silver in its name or product stream due to talk of short squeeze I presume. Even MUX is up 25%. This is likely to be  wild ride and to determine when or if to get out is going to be difficult. Short term TA is probably worthless, but influence on longer term analyses could be very useful. For now it is a great time to be long PM's and PM shares!


Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #12
In a statement released Monday, the CME said margins would be lifted to $16,500 per contract from $14,000, effective Tuesday, based on “the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.

I did not expect thus as it conflicts wit the idea that bullion banks are working for government and fed benefit. Should have an impact on today's action, but I do not think anything fundamentally changes. I consider it noise in the secular trend. Movement in metals and metal shares will probably create option premium amplification and opportunity.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-futures-pull-back-as-margin-requirements-hiked-following-spike-to-8-year-high-11612254353?siteid=yhoof2

Then there is this gem:

Strategists at JPMorgan JPM, +0.74% “tactically” downgraded the Europe, Middle East, and Africa mining sector to neutral from overweight, viewing it as “short term profit-taking as miners could continue to benefit if reflation takes hold, if U.S.$ weakens further and have resilient balance sheets.

At least they see the predicted coming pull back as temporary in a secular bull market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/miners-tumble-as-jpmorgan-downgrades-sector-and-silver-prices-slide-from-eight-year-high-11612259966?siteid=yhoof2


Re: 2021 Silver

Reply #13
I can't see this lasting for long before a crash.