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Topic: GDXJ (Read 3027 times) previous topic - next topic
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GDXJ

Breakout

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #1
Breakout

Yep, I believe we have breakout, but we may also be in for a small correction. Price is tracing above upper BB, Friday it went above 2 sigma on the chart below, and the lead STO curve is about to cross below the lag curve with both in overbought territory, 3 good points to signal a short term top. With the two channel indicators sloping up, the correction does not have to be down, it could be horizontal or even up less than the indicators. The shaded oval might be a good look alike on the chart, particularly if we see a volume trend down next week. I do not believe we get a meaningful correction until there is positive news on the corona virus and reduction in deficit spending coupled with Fed printing restrictions and neither is likely on the near horizon.




Re: GDXJ

Reply #2
I bought a lot of GDXJ shares before this runnup...but sold some 46 calls on 1/4 of position Thursday and Friday...Also sold some ABX calls on 15% of position. Selling March monthlys...If shares get taken away I dont mind. Positions are getting extremely haeavy as price goes higher. Barrick and particularly the work that Mark Bristow has done is spectacular. Id walk on coals for him...Never have I seen a better CEO in all my years of trading miners.
My personaly economics have changed due to him and I am greatful. My strategy is simple:
I have been selling some shares from time to time and accumulating physical gold with profits...I will keep doing this. Greed is what killed me so many times with miners and I wont be making the same mistake again. Accumulate real wealth with profits.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #3
Greed is what killed me so many times with miners and I wont be making the same mistake again. Accumulate real wealth with profits.
That's how I learned. Still learning time to time....
Painful!

Re: GDXJ

Reply #4
I guess that was a breakout before the shakeout.  On  a positive note. the gap filled.
Cash is king. Great call again Nikko. Glad you have been here to help. I pulled out just in time, some of it because of you, TY
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #5
youre welcome Ed. I am amazed at the strength of GOLD today and miners in general. I wish I had held ydays buys for today as was NOT expecting this move. Barrick is not that far from where I sold it...but GDXJ is still very far.
I think this is a false rally and wont last. The final plunge is still ahead IMO. Cash is king.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #6
Market volatility has been high and with it options premiums. I have been using GDXJ, XOM, and KR for fodder primarily writing cash covered puts and secondarily covered calls both mostly expiring in the week written. Last week I covered some $31 GDXJ calls to avoid getting the stock put to me but still made over 1% on the funds at risk. This week is looking good to receive 2% plus. I will probably look to GDXJ as the single issue next week because 1) it has very little single mine risk particularly wrt Chinese Coronavirus contamination, 2) While there may be some short term downside risk, the bias for the ETF is generally up with all the funds being injected into the economy, 3) the options are liquid and premiums are elevated even for strikes way out of the money, and 4) if put, the call option premiums are very good.

Looking at the chart, BB's are narrowing suggesting the volatility will be slowing and option premiums will come down as well. The lower band has found a bottom near $20 and should start to turn up. MACD curves and histogram are bullish and RSI is turning up from way oversold 2 weeks past. Volume has been declining recently on a general down trend; I expect volume to increase with an up turn soon. There has been a lot of ink spilled claiming gold will go as low as $1450, that might be the case, but in any event, I cannot see Gold staying down very long with all the money being pumped into the economy chasing ever fewer goods with all the business shutdowns and contractions. Miners might even lead gold.



Re: GDXJ

Reply #7
I won't touch anything until this week is over. This week will be volatile.


Re: GDXJ

Reply #9
When that comes out, look out below!

Re: GDXJ

Reply #10
Tomorrow's report won't include the 10 Million claiming unemployment in the past 2 weeks.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #11
on the question of a bottom for PM stocks, have a look at the GDXJ charts for a proxy. the longer term moving average indicators, 20 day (blue green), 50 day (red) and 200 day (green) are bear oriented, ll because of the Wuhan virus hit early in March. While that is discouraging, it all has occurred on decreasing volume. and since mid March, the share price direction has generally been positive with some 40% of peak to trough having been recovered, albeit the recovery on decreasing volume as well.



Shorter term things look much better. Force fitting the double curve feature has a decent look to it although there is literally no science behind it, MACD is below the mid line, looking bullish and has a lot of room to run. RSI is at 50, sloping up, and has room to run. STO traces are bull oriented, sloping up and at 54, are below over bought indication. The short term indicators are positive.




I have written a few weekly GDXJ puts with more aggressive strikes as I believe owning the ETF is going to start paying off handsomely. One poster indicated he did not trust GDXJ management and it is true they had to remake the share distribution, but that was due to the ETF's success and owning more than the Canadian 20% threshold. I do not think there was anything sinister about the actual fund management. In these times diversification among many companies and mines is important.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #12
GDXJ continues to perform well, maybe too well as recently there have been 5 gaps opened and the last two on the upturn have not been filled. While the shorter term outlook in the post above seems to playing out, the gaps below current price are concerning for a short term retreat, probably only enough to fill the gaps.


Re: GDXJ

Reply #13
Hi guys...back from my hiatus. To be honest with you, I have really done nothing. Stayed in cash as was burned out.
Looking back my sales were incredibly well timed as miners tanked. BUT barrick is higher now that when I sold. GDXJ is still lower.
NEM and GOLD have really led the way recently. Personally I will not buy these levels although it seems like a rerating to me. I will wait patiently on the sidelines and 50% of my net worth in gold anyhow so Im enjoying this run.
Eventually I will get back into GOLD 50%, NEM 30%, SSRM 10% and PAAS 10%...in my portfolio but it wont be as large a position as I previously had. Im heavy enough in the metal as it is with a cost of about 1200 an OZ.

Re: GDXJ

Reply #14
It is a very strong day for PM stocks and GDXJ. I posted earlier concerning unfilled gaps. The latest has been filled less a penny with today's volatile action. Also looking at the daily chart things look positive for continued up action as Bollinger bands are turning up, MACD curves are upsloping and still below the midline and RSI has room to run.



The weekly curve is even better: