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Topic: 2Q2019 (Read 278 times) previous topic - next topic

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2Q2019
For the second quarter, the production ideal would be to reach the quarterly averages useful to achieve the annual targets confirmed by CDE, ie + - 91500 ounces of gold, 3.6 million silver, 9.5 zinc and 8.1 lead.
This would require a quarterly increase of 17% for gold, which seems possible, and 45% for silver, which is unlikely even if the first quarter had been weak.
For the money, it would require an increase of 0.6M ounces for Palmarejo. Hope!

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #1
For the second quarter, the production ideal would be to reach the quarterly averages useful to achieve the annual targets confirmed by CDE, ie + - 91500 ounces of gold, 3.6 million silver, 9.5 zinc and 8.1 lead.
This would require a quarterly increase of 17% for gold, which seems possible, and 45% for silver, which is unlikely even if the first quarter had been weak.
For the money, it would require an increase of 0.6M ounces for Palmarejo. Hope!
Last year, Q2 production figures were released on July 9th!
Let's hope for tuesday and especially good numbers (but probably well below those of 2Q2018).
I would be happy with 3.5M ounces for silver and 91000 for gold.
What are your forecasts?

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #2
Don't have a clue. I don't trust CEO's. Hang'em is my attitude.

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #3
Based on the figures that have just been published, I evaluate the Q2 sales at 162M, an increase of 7M compared to Q1, which for me is disappointing!
What do you think ?

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #4
Based on figures released yesterday, I am evaluating the increase in quarterly sales to 7M.
It is in Palmarejo that the increase is the highest and it is good since it is the most profitable mine (Gross margin of 37.6% for Q1).
In Silvertip, there is a problem with the price of zinc increased from 1.19 to 0.49. The price of zinc has decreased by + - 20% since the end of March, but not in the proportion reported at Silvertip!
Note that to meet the production targets, compared to Q2, Silvertip must double its production for Q3 and Q4!
Can we believe it and in addition it must be in profitable conditions!
The 2019 production targets are confirmed, but why is the CEO using the term "Overall" then the production targets are confirmed for each of the 5 mines? This term "Overall"worries me a bit, does it need to to assume a failure for one of the 5 mines?
If the production targets are actually achieved, this should generate for each of the last 2 quarters sales of more than 208M based on current metal prices (1410 and 15.15 for gold and silver)!
It seems a little too beautiful, what do you think?
What is your analysis of published figures?

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #5
Based on figures released yesterday, I am evaluating the increase in quarterly sales to 7M.
It is in Palmarejo that the increase is the highest and it is good since it is the most profitable mine (Gross margin of 37.6% for Q1).
In Silvertip, there is a problem with the price of zinc increased from 1.19 to 0.49. The price of zinc has decreased by + - 20% since the end of March, but not in the proportion reported at Silvertip!
Note that to meet the production targets, compared to Q2, Silvertip must double its production for Q3 and Q4!
Can we believe it and in addition it must be in profitable conditions!
The 2019 production targets are confirmed, but why is the CEO using the term "Overall" then the production targets are confirmed for each of the 5 mines? This term "Overall"worries me a bit, does it need to to assume a failure for one of the 5 mines?
If the production targets are actually achieved, this should generate for each of the last 2 quarters sales of more than 208M based on current metal prices (1410 and 15.15 for gold and silver)!
It seems a little too beautiful, what do you think?
What is your analysis of published figures?
The term "Overall" in context looks like a projection of averages.

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #6
CDE's past does not plead for it.
However, one can try to evaluate the future in all modesty.
In Q1, the gross profit (Sales-CAS) was 23.1M and I estimate it at 40M for Q2, almost double. For the last two quarters of 2019 it should approach 60M taking into account a "normal" selling price of zinc.
So I presume a nice turnaround of CDE. I rely on the current prices of metals and published figures, I refuse to base myself on assumptions of rising precious metals!

  • edthelorax
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Administrator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #7
Andre, I appreciate your input and opinions. I wish I had more time to study again. I'm lucky to have time to chart. 
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #8
First analysis of quarterly results:
- Revenue 162.123 no surprise since I had planned 162.11
- loss (0.11) disappointment
- Cash flow from oper. Act. 26.4M: good, nice improvement.
Your opinion please, I will provide a more detailed analysis in a few days.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #9
First analysis of quarterly results:
- Revenue 162.123 no surprise since I had planned 162.11
- loss (0.11) disappointment
- Cash flow from oper. Act. 26.4M: good, nice improvement.
Your opinion please, I will provide a more detailed analysis in a few days.
CDE is looking a lot better than earlier this year. Looking at the chart I took a position last week. A very powerful cup is now in place and let's see if we can get a proper handle....

Re: 2Q2019
Reply #10
Hello,My forecast of a quarterly turnover of 162.1 M was correct, but the essential is elsewhere:
1) -For me, the essential element of the results published is the Cash Flow from operating activities of 26.1M whereas previous quarters were negative in this respect. The CFOA is very important for any industrial company because it represents its ability to generate cash for its operational activities.Two years ago, in August 2016 the CDE stock was worth $ 15.8 while the last Cash Flow from Operating Activities for Q2-2016 was 45.9M. It seems likely that such a CFOA of nearly 50M is again possible for the next quarters, which should lead to a correlative increase in the CDE price (but there are now 205M shares for 158M in 2016). Based on gold at $ 1450 and silver at $ 16 and production and CAS forecasts, I estimate that CDE is worth more than $ 11 per share.
2) - Silvertip is the main cause of the poor results of CDE. We know that Silvertip has been bought also and especially for its expansion and development possibilities. In yesterday's conference, I read "We have resumed our drilling in June, which has yielded outstanding results so far and makes us optimistic about our ability to significantly increase reserves and resources at Silvertip over time. "On the website Coeur.com, I have not found any recent reports on drill results at Silvertip, but I think we can reasonably assume that Silvertip's potential is going well. ) that in its growth possibilities and that it will thus be justified an acquisition too much appear in its exploitation (we should move towards a positive CFOA by the end of the year if the mine was to have only its lifetime currently planned at 7 years old.
Your opinions and considerations please?

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #11

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #12
Added some CDE on ydays dip at 5.15 avg as a trade.
I still hold a very large position at about 3.10 avg as well as Jan 4 calls ( up 250% ).
They also filed to sell up to 75 mil of stock with Citi and BMO from time to time. Not a big deal as will likely be used to draw down debt ( AG has similar program ).
IMO with gold at 1500 and silver at 17, cashflows will be significant in the coming quarters. Fair value of stock is close to 7 presently IMO.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: 2Q2019
Reply #13
Added some CDE on ydays dip at 5.15 avg as a trade.
I still hold a very large position at about 3.10 avg as well as Jan 4 calls ( up 250% ).
They also filed to sell up to 75 mil of stock with Citi and BMO from time to time. Not a big deal as will likely be used to draw down debt ( AG has similar program ).
IMO with gold at 1500 and silver at 17, cashflows will be significant in the coming quarters. Fair value of stock is close to 7 presently IMO.
Watching to see if this will develop a handle. On the weekly it looks more defined.