For the second quarter, the production ideal would be to reach the quarterly averages useful to achieve the annual targets confirmed by CDE, ie + - 91500 ounces of gold, 3.6 million silver, 9.5 zinc and 8.1 lead.This would require a quarterly increase of 17% for gold, which seems possible, and 45% for silver, which is unlikely even if the first quarter had been weak.For the money, it would require an increase of 0.6M ounces for Palmarejo. Hope!
Based on figures released yesterday, I am evaluating the increase in quarterly sales to 7M.It is in Palmarejo that the increase is the highest and it is good since it is the most profitable mine (Gross margin of 37.6% for Q1).In Silvertip, there is a problem with the price of zinc increased from 1.19 to 0.49. The price of zinc has decreased by + - 20% since the end of March, but not in the proportion reported at Silvertip!Note that to meet the production targets, compared to Q2, Silvertip must double its production for Q3 and Q4!Can we believe it and in addition it must be in profitable conditions!The 2019 production targets are confirmed, but why is the CEO using the term "Overall" then the production targets are confirmed for each of the 5 mines? This term "Overall"worries me a bit, does it need to to assume a failure for one of the 5 mines?If the production targets are actually achieved, this should generate for each of the last 2 quarters sales of more than 208M based on current metal prices (1410 and 15.15 for gold and silver)!It seems a little too beautiful, what do you think?What is your analysis of published figures?
First analysis of quarterly results:- Revenue 162.123 no surprise since I had planned 162.11- loss (0.11) disappointment- Cash flow from oper. Act. 26.4M: good, nice improvement.Your opinion please, I will provide a more detailed analysis in a few days.
Added some CDE on ydays dip at 5.15 avg as a trade. I still hold a very large position at about 3.10 avg as well as Jan 4 calls ( up 250% ).They also filed to sell up to 75 mil of stock with Citi and BMO from time to time. Not a big deal as will likely be used to draw down debt ( AG has similar program ).IMO with gold at 1500 and silver at 17, cashflows will be significant in the coming quarters. Fair value of stock is close to 7 presently IMO.