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Topic: CDE Analysis (Read 1040 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #1
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098760-free-cash-flow-coeur?auth_param=7vf4n:1cp60fs:3d24d048cc42702f46e866ab757e4c4c&uprof=82
The one to ask is Edmund.

It all depends on what gold does. Like the author says, "At $17 silver and $1200 gold, the cash flows will be negligible, but at, say, $20 silver and $1300 gold, its adjusted free cash flow could easily increase by a four-digit percentage."

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #2
Here is a chart. MACD sucks but should come up.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #3
Best guess on CDE outlook.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #4
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098760-free-cash-flow-coeur?auth_param=7vf4n:1cp60fs:3d24d048cc42702f46e866ab757e4c4c&uprof=82
The one to ask is Edmund.

It all depends on what gold does. Like the author says, "At $17 silver and $1200 gold, the cash flows will be negligible, but at, say, $20 silver and $1300 gold, its adjusted free cash flow could easily increase by a four-digit percentage."


Based on CDE's production and CAS forecasts and current gold and silver prices, I estimate EBITDA at + - 140M for 2017.
This justifies + - the current course by comparison.
With gold at 1400 and silver at 19, the EBITDA would be a little less than 200M.
Your feedback?
Some reported improvements to come, but quantified evaluations would be desirable.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #5
Next year CDE will look much better. This year its a dog and I plan to unload it in the near future.
Check out KL Kirkland Lake Gold.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099433-kirkland-lake-gold-upside-sustain-robust-production-cash-flows

  • edmund
  • [*][*][*]
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #6
There wereseveral areas that hurt coeurs Free cash flow-the ground condition forced coeur to mine lower grade most of quarter at indepencia  that condition rectified and indepencia production up and back at grade.Not only lost production but royalty free componant. then there were remediation costs.
Also kensington that exspenced development only to have paste backfilll issues and had to mine lower grades. They now are back to 2 higher grade areas at kensington main and one at raven.produce at grade
At rochestor there were pre stripping costs extra trucks,diesel plus cyanide to make up levels from earlier torrential rain-so the got higher grade gold that leaches quickly that will power rochestor for 2nd half
 At Wharf'got back to remaining high grade at Golden Reward along with process enhancements and larger trucks.Coeur raised quidance here.
Preciosa drilling complete
No further NSR to RPM saves 1.1 million a quarter
no further costs or accounting for joaquin,and Coeur Capital sold to metalla
First full quarter lower interest payments with no further cash redemption  costs or accrued interest which was paid early last quarter
interest on bonds paid bi annually
use of NOL's good
 at three US mines
capital leases for gensets at kensington and underground equipment guadalupe 2nd quarter
these are highest grade,largest production months and lowest costs
All in all to have restored balance sheet completed two of three expansion on time on budget with third complete in 4th quarter along with two acquisitions  and to have bonds lowered to 5.875% and extended 3 years with 250mill in cash
To produce 80% more gold at palmarejo-120,000ozs a percentage royalty free
To raise guidance at Wharf to 90/95,000
To produce at grade the balance of kensingtons 120,000ozs guidance
I think there is a case for increased gold at lower costs for balance of year-
Without the issues coeur had just at kensington and indepencia-- coeur would have been profitable 2nd quarter


  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #8
What do you think of this CDE analysis?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157457-coeur-mining-exceptional-2017-results-2018-cost-guidance-concern?auth_param=7vf4n:1daumvb:06c9173e855111389853b464f697df92&uprof=82

CDE is always a surprise. What is needed here is a extended time where the metals are up. This raises profit which is the bottom line in any stock. Right now I would hold off unless the chart shows a up-tick is imminent. Buy for a day or two and then sell.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #9
reloaded all CDE I sold at 5.50...also bought a bunch of CDE calls today. 6 strike March...for .45-.50 cents.
The last CDE calls I sold were the Jan 4 strikes...made 300%.
Added some SLV and PSLV as well on this smash just now...almost 50% FIB retrace.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #10
There is a lot of chatter about CDE, but a couple things are made clear with the chart below: First over the long haul a buy and hold investor would have been much better off holding silver; and second, CDE is highly leveraged to silver prices, both up and down. Except for 2016 and that was a product price response, management has not done anything as measured through current time, to do shareholders any favors. Another way to look at it, priced in silver, CDE has to increase by 20 times to get back to the 2006 starting point. In dollar terms, that will likely be a lot more as I doubt the dollar is going to increase in value.


  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #11
After Barrick Gold, my only other position I hold is CCD and have some LT options as well. CDE will be a huge mover once silver price starts to move. Very cheap p/cashflow by my analysis with present gold/silver prices.

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #12
I believe that CDE will be at a turning point in the November 4th and 5th publications.
If the results of the 3Q confirm my forecast of a cash flow (CFOA) of more than 50M, the price of CDE should double.
On the contrary, if CDE still disappoints with negative news or simply lack of proven positive information, its management will lose all credit and the negative consequences will follow!

Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #13
I believe that CDE will be at a turning point in the November 4th and 5th publications.
If the results of the 3Q confirm my forecast of a cash flow (CFOA) of more than 50M, the price of CDE should double.
On the contrary, if CDE still disappoints with negative news or simply lack of proven positive information, its management will lose all credit and the negative consequences will follow!
I think investors getting in CDE have a very good chance for making some serious money particularly with the quarter over quarter PM price bump, legacy buy and hold folks are not likely to reap a big reward for a long time. That said, charts I used to use when I day traded gave a very short term buy signal at 12:41 this afternoon at $4.77, probably would have been $4.78 by the time a trade could be placed. The day trade sell signal came at 2:50pm at $4.84. Six cents is not much at a little over 1% less friction, but it is not going backward.

  • Nikko
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
Re: CDE Analysis
Reply #14
CDE has really done well lately...I took some off the table today from 5.55- 5.60. Still very long but have sold off 1/3 of position before earnings. Holding my March 6 calls though. Sometimes this stock is a traders dream as had picked some up on the dip recently from 4.30-4.50. Always a good idea to let some go into earnings in this name as they tend to disappoint...hopefully not this time!