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Topic: SP500 (Read 1782 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: SP500
Reply #15
I agree. You know what I know. Ain't it sad? The leaders are not humans.

Re: SP500
Reply #16
look at reply 7 and a couple below, particularly Ken's lines on the chart I posted, where it was discussed about a major turn coming for markets. It looks like priced in gold that turn has taken place even if questionable in US$.


Re: SP500
Reply #17
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: SP500
Reply #18
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: SP500
Reply #19


Ed, serious question I have pondered for quite some time, When we chart, we assume the measuring tool is constant. If we chart bushel of corn grown per acre per year, we assume the measures, acres, years and bushels do not change. By extrapolation, are we not assuming the value of the dollar does not change when we chart? Because the dollar has been bias to near worthless since coming off the gold standard, are not chart trajectories biased upward? This seems to be burr under the saddle of credibility for me. Thoughts?

Re: SP500
Reply #20


Ed, serious question I have pondered for quite some time, When we chart, we assume the measuring tool is constant. If we chart bushel of corn grown per acre per year, we assume the measures, acres, years and bushels do not change. By extrapolation, are we not assuming the value of the dollar does not change when we chart? Because the dollar has been bias to near worthless since coming off the gold standard, are not chart trajectories biased upward? This seems to be burr under the saddle of credibility for me. Thoughts?

There is no doubt this is true.  This is the reason that for the very long term, Gold and Silver are no brainers. There are very few things that do not change over time.
I think charting in LOG helps mediate the dilution of the money.
When looking at less than a half decade, i think the true inflation isn't  too mush of an issue, but longer than that it starts getting noticeable.
I would guess the primary reason TA can work for the longer term, is that everyone is doing it under the same devaluation.
It sure does add confusion to markets,
For 99% of the people it totally disguises what is being done.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: SP500
Reply #21
At some point, the fundamentals will force proper valuation. Most likely an over-shoot.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

  • sn00p
  • [*][*][*][*]
Re: SP500
Reply #22

Re: SP500
Reply #23
For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Re: SP500
Reply #24
About an average normal year's up move in two months without a commensurate news spike, change in profits, or investment into the businesses, rather share buy backs, more QE, continued distorted interest rates being fixed below market, and unprecedented 'forced' Fed involvement into the REPO markets with amplitude not seen before. The real question is how has the wealth represented by the index changed? Priced in gold, the picture is not so shiny indicating actual wealth is not increasing as touted on financial news or by the president.