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Topic: New Gold NGD (Read 1607 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #30
NGD's chart looks pretty poor with MACD histogram very bearish and share price tracing along a very steeply declining lower BB. RSI and STO curves (not shown) are also bear oriented. Fundamentally the company has delivered on high end of production and after some hiccups, they have declared Rainy River in commercial production. Forecast for next year is 30% production increase to over 500,000 oz gold at an AISC < $800. About 90% of production is from Canada with additional exploration potential in BC and balance sheet looks strong. This might be a buy at the bottom opportunity, with a little catalyst like good earnings report due shortly and product price bump.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #31

A huge gap has been created today on very disappointing earnings with share price now at $1.45. Big problem has been bringing on Rainy River mine. If one believes they will sort out the start up problems, this might be a buy at this level. This was a $13 stock in 2011. It is funny in a sad sort of way, I had to delete the volume curve because the high volume on this down day obscured today's bar completely.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #32
On the Yahoo NGD comments board a fellow with handle Buck has made some great comments that made me smile at his simplistic way of presenting truth. Here a few cut and pastes:

The share price is correlated to the price of paper futures contracts. And since the number of long or short contracts is theoretically infinite, because the contracts are backed by nothing real, a true price of physical gold based on real supply and demand can not be determined. That's the bankers gold pricing scheme in two sentences. Something that would be prosecuted under RICO if anyone did this anything outside of precious metals.

The other thing is everyone knows the COMEX is a fraud and anyone with a sufficient amount of capital at their disposal could build a long position that exceeds the amount of metal available to deliver on the exchange, stand for delivery, and trigger a default event that would send the price of gold significantly higher. But why doesn't anyone do it? Back to my first sentence. Everyone knows it a fraud and either the regulators would change the delivery rules or some entity from the official sector would enter into enough swap agreements (with the understanding they won't ever get that gold back) to deliver enough gold and keep the price low.

@sandiegoman Generally agree with your posts but gold isn't like other commodities. Central Banks don't hold wheat, or lumber, or copper in their vaults and on their books. The BIS doesn't have a 400 ton swap position in lead but rather gold. What is the purpose of this position other than to influence the market? I've seen the gold futures market described as somebody selling something they don't have to somebody else that doesn't want it. To me that perfectly describes the 'metai-less' nature of the trading.

I sold my NGD holding last summer for about $2.85. I am thinking of adding it back to the portfolio as it is trading at $1.04 and they seem to have a plan to sort out the rest of the Rainy River mine start up issues plus increase throughput a little.

The TA indicators shown are all very bull oriented MACD histogram has turned positive with the curves coming off severe lows. RSI was at 15.5 twice in the last 4 weeks forming a double bottom if that means anything. One thing for sure, twice it was severely oversold, the second time some 15% lower than the first. BB's are pinched but not as much as they were for most of the spring and early summer suggesting it might be a few days for a move to develop, but with the TA this bullish, there should be a move especially with little product pricing power.

Long post I know; do your own DD.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #33
I sprung for a small position in NGD yesterday at $0.92/share. With price/sales and price book both less than one, a move up in gold making Rainy River profitable, this stock could move rapidly higher. Chart looks like the share price bottomed end of last May.

There was a lot of board interest in this stock January 2017 with the stock well over $3.00 when startup trouble at Rainy River caused a large gap and drop in share price. For those that got in, if they sold when the gap filled, they did well. The chart now has a similar gap associated with similar issues that seem to be resolved, therefore the gap filling this time may not be cause for profit taking.

BB's are headed up MACD looks great with room to run and RSI is positive.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #34
Monday, I sprung far a small position in NGD and Wednesday I doubled it. The holding is up 22%, something that rarely happens for me in such a short time. The run up must be a reflection of the production report where they have produced to 2019 target guidance and reaffirmed that guidance for the full year. Second, 2019 projected AISC is high at $1600/ounce, but $600 of it is 2019 capital cost associated with mine start and working out start up issues; that should go away for 2020 making next year potentially very profitable which will allow them to explore more and shore up their balance sheet.

It is a very speculative stock as who knows what could go wrong with either of their mines, but it also has a very bright future if their story line holds together.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #35

Although not a silver miner, here is another great looking short term chart and it is supported with a decent fundamental story of new Rainy River mine in production and start up problems behind them for the most part. I like NGD and hold a small position.

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #36
Added a little more NGD today @ $1.44. AXU, EXK, and AG continue to amaze to the upside. It seems PM stocks with a fundamental story continue to outperform. NGD chart looks like this run up might have run its course for a while. If so, my addition today is confirmation of FOMO.

  • ken
  • [*][*][*][*][*]
  • Global Moderator
Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #37
Added a little more NGD today @ $1.44. AXU, EXK, and AG continue to amaze to the upside. It seems PM stocks with a fundamental story continue to outperform. NGD chart looks like this run up might have run its course for a while. If so, my addition today is confirmation of FOMO.

Greed is a awesome force!
  • Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 01:18:49 PM by ken

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #38
I have no idea how to interpret this, but have a look at NGD's chart then look at the same chart of GDXJ for a small gold miners proxy. If I did not have all the second thoughts, I would say the current NGD looks like GDXJ late last May

Re: New Gold NGD
Reply #39
NGD has performed remarkably well during this swoon. It might be strong hands are holding or a buyer of size is building a position or with today's volume and up move, maybe there is something taking place behind closed doors. I like this stock's organic potential for the reasons posted above. and I did add shares at $1.19 last Tuesday.